Day: April 4, 2026

Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid Israel-Iran military escalation

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Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil facilities and Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have hit the probability of a ceasefire. Ceasefire by April 7 is now at 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. This escalation has hammered the ceasefire markets. The April 7 market is nearly flat at 1.1% YES. The April 15 market has dropped to 6.5% YES from 22% a week ago. The April 30 market saw the biggest fall, now at 17.5% YES from 40%. Ceasefire markets are active, with volume at $431,402 in…

Bitcoin Whales, Sharks Realized $337M in Daily Losses in Q1 2026

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Bitcoin (BTC) traders holding 100–10,000 BTC realized losses at an average of $337 million per day in Q1 2026, the worst quarter since 2022, according to data from Glassnode. Key takeaways: Bitcoin dropped more than 20% after whales last realized losses at a comparable pace in 2022. Long-term holders are also selling at a loss, indicating capitulation and potentially more downside in price. BTC whales, sharks realized $30.91 billion loss in 2026 Realized Loss tracks the total dollar value of losses locked in when BTC is sold on-chain below its…

Tether May Delay Fundraising If Demand Falls Short at $500B Valuation

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Tether is pressuring investors to commit to a fundraising round at a $500 billion valuation within the next two weeks, saying that it may delay the raise if demand falls short. The El Salvador-based firm has been seeking fresh capital since late last year but has faced resistance from investors wary of the valuation, The Information reported Friday, citing unnamed sources. If commitments fall short of expectations, the company is likely to delay the raise. The $500 billion target would place Tether among the world’s largest financial firms, exceeding every…

Analyst Shares Why It Is Better To Buy PEPE Now

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In the bull market cycle of 2021-2022, the Shiba Inu meme coin made waves in a way that changed the face of meme coins forever. This came after Dogecoin’s initial 36,000% rally, and Shiba Inu followed with an over 1,000,000% rally. Naturally, this has led to the search of the meme coin that will replicate Shiba Inu’s move and so far, the verdict has been that it will be the PEPE meme coin. One analyst deep dives into this, elaborating on why PEPE could pull a similar stunt. Why PEPE…

Bitcoin’s ‘No Direction’ Action May Lead To Bigger Breakout: Analyst

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Bitcoin’s prolonged consolidation below $70,000 may be paving the way for a more significant rally, according to a crypto analyst. “The longer it lasts, the heavier the breakout will be,” MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in an X post on Friday. “Bitcoin remains stagnant in this area, which means that there’s literally no direction,” van de Poppe said, adding that he is eyeing Bitcoin (BTC) breaking through $71,000, a level the asset hasn’t reached since March 26. Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range Since…

Odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 rise to 14% amid military escalation

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Fighter jets over Tehran and Bushehr caused explosions, according to Iranian media. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have risen to 14% YES, up from 12% yesterday. Operation Epic Fury, the US-Israeli campaign, maintains pressure on Iran. The June 30 market shows traders slightly increasing odds due to military escalation. The market remains below the 20% odds from a week ago. This market sees $59,602 in USDC traded daily. The order book depth requires $195,733 to move the market 5 points. A recent 1-point spike occurred…

Odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 rise to 13.5% amid US-Israeli air campaign

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Fighter jets over Tehran and Bushehr caused explosions, according to Iranian media. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have risen to 13.5% YES, up from 12% yesterday. These strikes are part of a US-Israeli air campaign against Iran, which has intensified. The Iranian regime fall market saw a 1.5-point increase, but the market remains skeptical about imminent regime change, with odds dropping from 20% to 13.5% over the past week. Trading volume is at $59,602 daily, but it would take $195,747 to shift the market by…

EU tariffs on US goods by September 30 loom as Trump escalates trade tensions

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Trump’s reputation as a dealmaker challenging major powers stirs trade tensions. The odds of the EU imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods by September 30 are rising, driven by his aggressive trade policies. Trump bypasses multilateral channels, opting for direct negotiations and economic threats, including tariffs. While the EU hasn’t acted yet, the chance of retaliatory tariffs grows as Trump pushes his agenda. The market remains cautious. With no current trading volume, traders may be waiting for concrete actions from the EU Commission or USTR. The September 30 deadline looms,…

Bitcoin ETFs Will Be Bigger Than Gold ETFs, Says ETF Analyst

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Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could surpass gold ETFs in total assets under management (AUM) as investor demand expands beyond the traditional “digital gold” narrative, according to ETF analyst James Seyffart. “There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart said on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Friday. He pointed to Bitcoin’s (BTC) role as digital gold, a store of value, a portfolio diversifier, and a form of digital capital and property, adding that the market also views…

Trump continues talks despite Iran downing two US jets; ceasefire odds drop to 1.1%

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Trump continues negotiations despite Iran shooting down two US jets. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 1.1% YES, down from 12% last week. Markets show skepticism about Trump’s diplomatic push. The April 7 market holds at 1.1% YES. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, indicating slight optimism. The April 30 market shows more confidence, with odds at 17.5% YES. Traders see little chance of an immediate resolution. A 19-point jump between April 30 and May 31 suggests expectations of a catalyst in May.…