Day: April 18, 2026

Iran issues new directives for Strait of Hormuz amid US talks

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Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister announced new directives for the Strait of Hormuz as part of US-Iran talks. The market for diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 dropped to 13% YES, down from 22% a day ago. Market reaction The market for Trump’s diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 fell sharply, with odds at 13% YES, down from 22% yesterday, on $5,026 in USDC volume. The market is thin: just $283 moves it 5 points. The odds for lifting the US blockade of the Strait by May 31 are…

US says Iran retains 40% of attack drone arsenal

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The US reports that Iran retains 40% of its attack drone arsenal. The Polymarket contract on whether Iran will strike Israel by April 30, 2026, sits at 100% YES. Market reaction At 100% YES, the Iran Military Action Against Countries market is priced as a certainty with only 12 days remaining before expiration. Volume is $0, meaning no one is actively trading the contract. The absence of activity suggests traders see no viable contrarian position at this price. Why it matters The 40% figure confirms that US-Israeli efforts to degrade…

Kelp Hacked, Losses Climb to $293M As Other Protocols Impacted

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Kelp, a liquid restaking protocol, was the victim of a cyber attack on Saturday, causing the platform to pause smart contracts for its restaking token (rsETH), as it “investigates” the attack amid reports of hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. “Earlier today, we identified suspicious cross-chain activity involving rsETH. We have paused rsETH contracts across mainnet and several Layer-2s,” the Kelp platform said in an X post. The attacker exploited the rsETH adapter bridge contract, the software code that manages Kelp’s rsETH token, and drained the platform of about…

USS Pinckney halts Iranian sea trade, no ships transit Strait of Hormuz

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CENTCOM reports the USS Pinckney enforcing a shutdown of Iranian sea trade, and the Polymarket contract for fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between April 6 and April 12 sits at 100% YES. Market reaction Zero ship movement from Iranian ports during the April 6–12 window has left the odds for 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz effectively dead. The window is now closed. The market for fewer than 20 ships is locked at 100% YES. Why it matters Volume on these markets is at $0,…

SOL Open Interest Jumps 20% As Traders Eye Rally To $100

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Key takeaways: Solana maintains its market dominance in DEX volume and TVL despite SOL’s underperformance versus its peers. Easing sell pressure from volatile geopolitics and a resurgence in memecoin activity could catalyze a SOL price rally to $100. Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) gained 10% within five days, reaching a three-week high on Friday. This price movement followed a generalized excitement after the US and Iran announced a ceasefire extension, which led to an 8% decline in crude Brent oil prices. Demand for SOL futures surged as open interest jumped…

Trump sets end-of-day deadline for Iran uranium negotiations

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President Trump has issued an end-of-day deadline for Iran negotiations. The market on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sits at 25.4% YES, down from 50% just 24 hours ago. The ultimatum hit the Iranian demands market hard. It’s at 43% YES, sliding from 62% yesterday. Traders appear to read Trump’s hardline stance as shrinking room for concessions like oil sanction relief. The Iran ending uranium enrichment market tells the same story. The drop from 50% to 27.8% in a day suggests traders doubt a breakthrough in…

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Falls Slightly in Latest Adjustment

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The Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty, the relative challenge of adding new blocks to the BTC blockchain, fell on Saturday, amid public mining companies selling record amounts of BTC to cover operating expenses. The Bitcoin mining difficulty fell to about 135.5 T, a modest decrease of about 1.1% over the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinWarz. Mining difficulty is also projected to increase in the next adjustment period. CoinWarz said: “The next Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is estimated to take place on May 01, 2026, 01:24:54 PM UTC, increasing the…

Trump convenes Situation Room meeting as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz

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President Trump has convened a White House Situation Room meeting to address Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sit at 13% YES, down from 22% yesterday. The Situation Room meeting implies a shift toward military strategy rather than diplomacy, and the diplomatic engagement odds dropped accordingly. The market resolves in 12 days. It saw a 6-point spike earlier that didn’t hold as traders reassessed the likelihood of talks. The order book depth requires just $283 to move the price 5 points, making…

Israeli soldier’s death in Lebanon raises doubts over ceasefire stability

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The death of Command Sgt.-Maj. (Res.) Barak Kalfon in southern Lebanon has raised questions about the durability of the recent ceasefire. The market for Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 currently sits at 100% YES. Market reaction Kalfon’s death, alongside injuries to other soldiers, points to ongoing hostilities despite the ceasefire. This casts doubt on the ceasefire’s stability and makes a Trump endorsement less likely. The Trump endorsement market reflects this uncertainty, with expectations of a 15% decrease in YES odds due to continued conflict. Odds for Israeli…

Iran Oil Tanker Fees Still Dominated by USDt, No Signs of BTC Yet: BPI

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Iran’s government naming Bitcoin (BTC) as a payment method for oil ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz highlights its role as a neutral, strategic asset, according to Sam Lyman, head of research at digital asset advocacy organization Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI).  The government selected BTC as one of the payment methods for the tolls because of its censorship-resistant qualities, Lyman told Cointelegraph. He said:  “This is one of the most significant situations where Bitcoin is very clearly a strategic asset. The reason why Iran wants to use Bitcoin for these…