Day: April 4, 2026

Market odds surge for US forces entering Iran by April 30 after clashes

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Clashes between Iranian forces and U.S. special forces, alongside a pilot evacuation, have increased market odds. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is now at 86.5% YES, up from 62% yesterday. The April 30 market jumped 4 points at 2:14 PM after news of direct confrontations. The December 31 market also rose to 90.5% YES, from 72% a day ago. Traders expect continued ground operations, with sharper increases in April odds suggesting imminent confirmation. Volume at $4.16M in USDC was traded on the April market, indicating strong interest. It…

Iran eases transit restrictions for Iraq, but US-Iran ceasefire odds drop

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Iran has eased restrictions for Iraq, allowing unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and reopening borders for trade and pilgrims. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. This move indicates a de-escalation with Iraq, but US-Iran tensions remain high. The market for an April 15 ceasefire sits at 6.5% YES, down from 22% last week, showing little impact on broader ceasefire expectations. The April 30 odds have also fallen to 17.5% from 40%. Despite easing restrictions…

Odds of US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop to 1% amid escalating tensions

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Iran’s warning of potential escalation has driven the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 down to 1% YES. This marks a sharp decline from 2% just a day ago and 12% a week prior. The warning, amid the ongoing 2026 Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict, intensifies an already volatile situation. With four days until April 7, the likelihood of a ceasefire appears slim. The April 15 market shows 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday, indicating trader pessimism about short-term de-escalation. The April 30 market at 17.5% reflects slightly more optimism but has…

Iran warns of regional chaos for US if tensions escalate, ceasefire odds drop

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Iran has issued a warning to the U.S., threatening regional chaos if tensions continue. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago. Traders are reacting to Iran’s threats by betting against a ceasefire. The April 7 market shows deep skepticism, while April 15 is at 6.5% YES, down from 8%. April 30 odds fell to 17.5% YES after a brief rise. The later markets show ongoing pessimism. Trading volume hit $431,402 in the past 24 hours,…

Telegram Has Been Downloaded Over 50M Times in Iran, Despite Ban: Durov

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The Iranian government’s attempt to block the Telegram messaging application in the country has backfired, as users find ways to circumvent national firewalls and online controls, according to Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov. “Iran banned Telegram years ago,” Durov said on Friday; however, tens of millions of users in the country have managed to access the application via virtual private networks (VPNs) and other similar tools, he added. VPNs route web traffic through servers distributed around the globe to mask the true Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of users and obscure their…

Ceasefire odds drop to 1% as protests erupt in Tel Aviv amid escalating tensions

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Protests in Tel Aviv demand an end to the war with Iran, while missile strikes from Yemen and explosions in Lebanon increase tensions. The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is down to 1% YES, falling from 12% a week ago. The April 7 sub-market is stagnant, with odds dropping due to ongoing military actions. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 22% last week, indicating bleak prospects for a quick resolution. The April 30 odds are at 17.5% YES, down from 40%, showing traders…

ProductionReady’s Jimmy Song Pitches Case for Conservative Bitcoin Software

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The Bitcoin (BTC) network needs a “conservative” Bitcoin client node software implementation to preserve its monetary properties and strengthen network decentralization, according to Jimmy Song, co-founder of ProductionReady, a non-profit organization funding open source Bitcoin node software development and education. The organization has a “bias” against significant code changes, unless there is “overwhelming” community support for the change, Song told Cointelegraph. “The general principle is: if you’re not sure a change makes the money better, don’t make it,” he said.  The number of Bitcoin nodes, broken down by software implementation,…

Iran rejects temporary ceasefire, demands permanent war resolution guarantees

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Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire, demanding guarantees for a permanent end to the war. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago and 12% a week ago. Iran’s decision has hit prediction markets hard. The April 7 market is flat at 1%. The April 15 market dropped to 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market fell to 17.5% YES from 24% a day ago and 40% a week ago. Traders are pessimistic about a quick resolution.…

Tesla’s reliance on Chinese parts highlights US-China trade tensions

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Tesla and other companies are buying components from Chinese suppliers amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. The odds of the EU imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods by September 30 are currently unavailable, but the situation suggests rising tensions. Tesla’s reliance on Chinese parts shows the difficulty of supply chain decoupling under Trump’s tariff policies. The market for retaliatory tariffs by September 30 lacks specific odds, but the situation indicates increased trade tensions. The December 31 market also awaits odds, with current dynamics potentially driving interest. The U.S. push for “friendshoring”…

Trump gives Iran 48 hours to negotiate deal as ceasefire odds plummet to 1%

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President Trump has given Iran 48 hours to reach a deal, warning of severe consequences otherwise. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday. Traders are reacting to the ultimatum by lowering immediate ceasefire odds. The April 7 market reflects a slim chance of resolution, trading at 1% YES with just four days left. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 8%, showing little confidence in a quick de-escalation. The April 30 market has dropped to 17.5% YES,…