Day: April 4, 2026

Iran open to bilateral diplomacy as ceasefire odds remain low: FT

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Iran’s Parliament speaker expressed willingness for bilateral diplomacy with neighbors. The US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% last week. Traders doubt an immediate ceasefire. The April 7 market remains stagnant despite Iran’s diplomatic gesture. April 15 odds are slightly better at 6% YES, but skepticism persists. The real interest is in April 30, with 18% YES, suggesting traders see potential de-escalation as a longer-term possibility. Odds jump from 18% to 36% YES between April 30 and May 31, indicating expectations for a late…

Iran’s denial of US negotiations drops April 7 ceasefire odds to 1%

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Iran’s denial of refusing U.S. negotiations in Pakistan has dropped ceasefire by April 7 odds to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday. Statements from Iran’s Foreign Minister and Pakistani officials suggest ongoing diplomatic stalemate. The April 7 market isn’t alone in this trend. April 15 odds fell to 6% YES, and April 30 saw a sharper drop to 18% YES. The biggest decline hit May 31, now at 36% YES, a 10-point drop from yesterday. Markets are active, with 24-hour USDC volume at $430,773. The April 30 market trades nearly…

Nevada Judge Extends Kalshi Ban, Rules Event Contracts Unlicensed Gambling

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A Nevada judge has reportedly extended a ban preventing Kalshi from offering event-based contracts in the state, ruling that the products constitute unlicensed gambling under state law. Judge Jason Woodbury said at a hearing in Carson City on Friday that he will grant a preliminary injunction requested by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, barring the company from allowing residents to trade on outcomes such as sports, elections and entertainment events without a gaming license, according to Reuters. The decision extends a temporary restraining order issued on March 20, which will…

Why Bearish Bets and ETF Flows May Spark a Rally

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Key takeaways: Bitcoin hitting $72,000 would liquidate $2.5 billion in shorts, potentially crushing bears who are overleveraged. Iran’s war and high oil prices currently pressure BTC, but a ceasefire or ETF inflows could spark a rapid recovery. $2.5 billion in shorts at risk if BTC hits $72,000 Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently failed to hit new highs since attempting to reclaim the $75,000 level since March 17. Bearish Bitcoin futures bets have been piling up as the war in Iran pushed oil prices to their highest levels since June 2022. However,…

Prediction Markets Are Testing Legal Limits in Strict Asian Markets

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Prediction markets are pushing into Asia’s largest economies, even as local gambling laws place strict limits on betting activities. Asia represents a combination of scale, active retail participation and limited local alternatives, making it too large to ignore despite regulatory risks. That’s a similar pattern seen in crypto, where technology moved faster than regulation and licensing frameworks, prompting exchanges to enter markets before clear rules were in place.  Like many startups, the industry’s heavyweights adopted the “better to ask for forgiveness than permission” approach to scale. Polymarket, one of the…

Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid escalating US-Iran tensions and military strikes: FT

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Iran’s call for a permanent ceasefire clashes with rising conflict. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 12% last week. Strikes on Khuzestan’s petrochemical sites and Israel’s evacuation warnings for southern Lebanon have traders doubting a quick ceasefire. April 15 ceasefire odds are at 6% YES, down from 22% last week. The April 30 market shows 18% YES, a significant fall from 40% last week. Trading volume reveals market sentiment. April 7 sees $22,948 in daily USDC traded, with $12,352 needed to shift…

Ceasefire odds drop as Iran faces attacks, April 7 now at 1.1% YES

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Iran’s call for a permanent end to the conflict is marred by new attacks on Khuzestan’s petrochemical sites and Israeli evacuation alerts in southern Lebanon. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday. The likelihood of an early ceasefire is fading as military actions continue. April 7 is now a long shot at 1.1% YES. April 15 stands at 6.5% YES, showing doubt about a quick resolution amid ongoing strikes. The April 30 market, at 17.5% YES, reflects traders’ skepticism about…

Polymarket Pulls Missing US Pilot Market, Faces Questions Over Rules

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Polymarket removed a market tied to the fate of a missing US service member after mounting backlash, saying the listing violated its “integrity standards.” The controversy erupted after a prediction market appeared asking whether US authorities would confirm the rescue of a pilot reportedly shot down over Iran, with most users (over 60%) betting that they wouldn’t be rescued until Saturday. US Representative Seth Moulton condemned the market, calling it “disgusting” and expressing concerns over people speculating on the fate of a potentially injured service member. “They could be your…

Iran threatens to target Zionist embassies amid Operation True Promise 4 footage

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Iran has released footage of Operation True Promise 4 and threatened to target Zionist embassies if attacked. The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 14% YES, up from 12% yesterday but down from 20% a week ago. The footage and threats highlight Iran’s military capability and leadership stability. The June 30 market shows a slight increase but remains lower than last week. With 88 days left, the significant drop over the week suggests traders are reassessing expectations of regime stability under Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership. Trade…

Iran threatens Zionist embassies amid rising regime fall odds to 13.5% by June 30

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Iran released footage of Operation True Promise 4 and threatened Zionist embassies if attacked. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are at 13.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago. The footage underscores Iran’s missile and drone campaign against Israel and US bases. Under Mojtaba Khamenei, these actions have stabilized regime fall odds. The market for a regime fall by June 30 increased slightly to 13.5% from 12% in the last 24 hours, indicating traders are considering Iran’s threats seriously. The June 30 market remains the…