White House envoy to meet Iranian officials in Islamabad amid tensions

White House envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Iranian officials in Islamabad on Saturday, with the Polymarket contract on an announced end to military operations against Iran by April 30 trading at 3.2% YES, up from 3% yesterday. Market reaction The meeting was requested by Iran. With two days left until the April 30 deadline, traders are watching whether direct engagement produces any formal cessation of hostilities. Odds spiked briefly from 2% to 50% before correcting sharply, showing how reactive this thin market is to new information. The current…

Trump claims Iran seeks end to naval blockade amid diplomatic hints

Trump claims Iran requested an end to the naval blockade, hinting at diplomatic overtures. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 2.9% YES, barely changed from 3% yesterday. Traders aren’t biting on Trump’s hint of diplomacy. The April 30 ceasefire market shows minor movement with just two days left. A 48-point spike earlier this week didn’t stick. Traders appear to want more than a vague statement before pricing in a resolution. The US invasion market could drift down slightly if talks materialize, but the lack of detail and continued…