Tag: Markets

Graham calls for US action if Iran resists in nuclear talks, impacting markets

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## Market Snapshot US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 is priced at 8.5% YES, a slight increase from 8% 24 hours ago. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium by December 31 is at 32.5% YES, down from 40% a day ago. The likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 is at 30.8% YES. ## Key Takeaways – Graham’s statement appears to suggest a decreased likelihood of a diplomatic resolution, impacting markets related to uranium agreements. – The potential for escalation indicated by Graham may reduce the…

US Senate Bans Members, Staff from Prediction Markets

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The US Senate on Thursday unanimously approved a resolution banning its members and staff, who are often exposed to sensitive information, from using prediction markets. The resolution, passed by unanimous consent, changed the Senate’s rules and took immediate effect.  “Engaging in any way in a prediction market or trying to place bets where we might have inside information deteriorates the confidence that our constituents have in us,” Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, who introduced the resolution, said on the Senate floor. “By changing the standing rules of the Senate, what we’re…

Trump Softens His Stance on Prediction Markets

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US President Donald Trump has softened his stance on prediction markets just days after he bemoaned the surging interest and popularity of the betting platforms. “I don’t know. I know some people who are very smart. They like it,” Trump told reporters in Florida on Saturday after he was asked about his earlier comments, in which he said he didn’t support prediction markets. “They disagree, but they like it.” “A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the…

Trump claims division in Iran’s leadership, markets await decisive action

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Trump’s claim of division within Iran’s leadership could be a strategic maneuver. Reza Pahlavi’s entry into Iran by June 30 sits at 6.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday. Market reaction The move was modest. The June 30 market gained 0.5 points, while the December 31 market rose to 15.5% YES from 14% a day prior. The term structure shows a 9-point spread between the June 30 and December 31 contracts, suggesting traders expect any catalyst to arrive in the second half of the year. Why it matters The “Fall of…

CFTC Sues New York Over bid to Apply Gambling Laws to Prediction Markets

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a lawsuit against New York to stop the state from applying its gambling laws to federally regulated prediction market platforms, escalating a growing clash over who has authority to oversee these products. In a complaint lodged in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the CFTC argued that federal law gives it exclusive authority over these markets, asking the court for a declaratory judgment and a permanent injunction against New York’s enforcement actions. “CFTC-registered exchanges have faced an…

GPT-5.5 release by June 2026 seen as certain, markets confidence

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OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 release market for June 30, 2026, sits at 100% YES, unchanged from yesterday, after reported gains in capability and efficiency. Market reaction Both the April 30 and June 30 markets are at full confidence. The April 23 market also reached 100% YES, up from 84% a week ago. Traders expect an announcement or confirmation in the coming days. USDC volume is strong across these markets, with April 23 leading at $182,552 daily. Order book depth reflects concentrated interest, though a single 3-point drop occurred at 5:37 PM yesterday,…

Trump hints at easing Iran tensions, oil markets remain skeptical

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Trump’s remarks hint at easing tensions with Iran, affecting oil markets. Crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 is at 3.6% YES, showing little change over the past week. The market’s muted reaction reflects skepticism about rapid de-escalation. Trump’s comments did momentarily move the diplomatic meeting market, where odds of no meeting by June 30 sit at 14.2% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The low-cost move ($114 to shift odds by 5 points) suggests traders aren’t willing to overcommit. The market for WTI crude hitting $160 in April…

New York, Illinois Ban Officials From Prediction Markets

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New York Governor Kathy Hochul has signed an executive order banning state employees from betting on prediction markets, following a similar move by Illinois earlier this week. “Getting rich by betting on inside information is corruption, plain and simple,” Hochul said on Wednesday, adding: “Our actions will ensure that public servants work for the people they represent, not their own personal enrichment.” Hochul also slammed the Trump administration and congressional Republicans for allowing an “ethical Wild West” to take hold around prediction markets without implementing any “meaningful ethical standards” to…

Coinbase Shifts NY Prediction Markets Case to Federal Court

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Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal, said Wednesday that the company had removed New York Attorney General Letitia James’ prediction markets lawsuit from state court to federal court, arguing that the case turns on disputed questions of federal law over how event contracts are regulated. The move escalates a legal fight that could help define whether prediction markets fall under federal commodities regulation and the scope of the US Commodities and Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) or state gambling laws, with broader implications for the oversight of platforms like Coinbase and…

New York Sues Coinbase, Gemini Over Unlicensed Markets

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New York’s attorney general has filed lawsuits against crypto exchange operators Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan for allegedly violating state gambling laws, according to court records cited by Reuters. Copies of the complaints show the state alleges both exchanges failed to obtain licenses from the New York State Gaming Commission to operate their markets, Reuters reported.  “Gambling by another name is still gambling, ​and it ​is not ⁠exempt from regulation under our state laws and Constitution,” Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement. James said the lawsuit seeks…