Day: April 28, 2026

Iran clashes with US, UAE at UN nuclear conference, deal odds plummet

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Iran’s confrontation with the US and UAE at the UN nuclear conference has pushed odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 down to 1.0% YES, a sharp drop from 7% just 24 hours ago. Market reaction The April 30 nuclear deal market has collapsed from 68% YES a week ago to its current level, with traders largely abandoning any expectation of a resolution before the deadline. Daily trading volume is about $107,556 in face value but only $7,699 in actual USDC. The market is thin: $1,550 is enough…

Bitcoin Support Retest Primes Bulls For Next Attempt At $80K

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Bitcoin bulls fell $515 short of their $80,000 target after BTC (BTC) topped out at $79,485 on Monday, but a potential upside is that the brief pullback provides a necessary retest of key underlying levels.  In technical analysis, a break of structure is generally followed by a support-resistance retest as swing traders take profits at preset levels that align with metrics such as the Fibonacci retracement, exponential moving averages, Bollinger Bands, order book structure, and more. The support-resistance flip is also a feature traders look for to confirm that a longer-term…

MARA Forms Foundation to Support Bitcoin Network, Adoption

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Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings launched the MARA Foundation on Monday to support the health of the Bitcoin network and the communities that rely on it as a tool for financial sovereignty. The MARA Foundation said it plans to implement measures to “harden Bitcoin against security threats,” including quantum computing, while also expanding access to self-custodial Bitcoin (BTC) and offering a range of educational resources, MARA said after announcing the new foundation at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas on Monday. It also plans to support the “development of a…

Trump doubts Iran deal as uranium enrichment talks stall

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Trump expressed skepticism over Iran negotiations while mediators remain optimistic about the next few days. The market for Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 has collapsed from 50% a week ago to 0.9% YES. Market reaction Traders are clearly unconvinced by the mediators’ optimistic tone. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement odds cratered from 6% just 24 hours ago. A 15% expected move reflects skepticism, given Trump’s doubt and the ongoing deadlock over nuclear limits and the Hormuz blockade. Why it matters In the Iran peace deals market, the outlook…

Bank of Japan projects economic slowdown for fiscal 2026 amid Middle East tensions

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The Bank of Japan projects a slowdown in economic growth for fiscal 2026, driven by Middle East tensions that have pushed oil prices to record highs. The market for a rate cut after the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged from last week. The geopolitical context could shift this. The Bank of Japan has stressed flexible monetary policy, and energy security concerns raise the probability of rate cuts if elevated oil prices persist. The April 2026 market remains static at 0.1% YES, with only $19 in USDC traded…

Ethereum Price Drops Below $2,350, Recovery Hopes Start To Fade

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Ethereum price started a fresh decline and traded below $2,350. ETH is now consolidating above $2,265 and might struggle to recover. Ethereum started a downside correction from the $2,400 zone. The price is trading below $2,350 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,310 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it stays above the $2,350 zone. Ethereum Price Trims Gains Ethereum price failed to remain stable above $2,380 and…

Tehran condemns US seizure of Iranian oil tankers as piracy

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Tehran called Washington’s seizure of Iranian oil tankers “outright piracy.” The market for Iran successfully targeting ships by April 30 sits at 80% YES, up from 19% just 24 hours ago. ## Market reaction The ship-targeting market spiked 61 percentage points in a single day. Daily volume is $1,280 in USDC, and it takes only $101 to move the odds by 5 percentage points. This is a thinly traded market, vulnerable to sharp swings on any new development. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market (resolving end of June) has…

Bitcoin Price Turns Lower After Rejection, Downside Pressure Builds

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Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $79,500 zone. BTC is consolidating and might struggle to stay above the $76,500 support. Bitcoin failed to stay above $78,500 and corrected gains. The price is trading below $78,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $77,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might extend losses if it stays below the $77,600 and $78,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to…

Tech stocks hit bear territory as US-Iran tensions rise, Nvidia remains strong

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Six of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks have fallen into bear territory as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate, but the odds of NVIDIA becoming the largest company by market cap on June 30 hold at 92% YES, even as earnings season approaches alongside questions about a $600 billion AI-driven capital expenditure plan. Market reaction The market trades a daily volume of $16,712 in USDC, with $42,558 in depth needed to move the price 5 points. The largest single move was a 1-point spike, pointing to relatively stable sentiment despite the geopolitical backdrop.…

Bitcoin Bears At Risk Of $1.4B Liquidation If BTC Rallies To $80K

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Key takeaways: Persistent spot market accumulation from Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy provided a price floor for Bitcoin and threatens to trigger a short squeeze. Negative funding rates and cautious options skews could trap bears if the Federal Reserve policy shifts or high oil prices trigger higher inflation. Bitcoin (BTC) price sustained levels above $76,000 for the past week, distancing itself from its year low at $60,500. The recent bullish momentum came as crude oil prices jumped above $100 and the S&P 500 hit new trading highs, but futures market data…