Tag: Prediction

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon floats prediction market services

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People have been gambling forever, so prediction markets aren’t so different as long as you don’t blow up your life. That’s how Jamie Dimon sees one of the biggest trends of the year and he might not want to miss out. The longtime chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, the world’s largest bank by assets, told CBS News this week that they are studying whether to launch prediction market services. “Maybe. We’ve just started to ask this question,” said Dimon when asked whether JPMorgan could get involved in prediction…

CFTC Warns Prediction Market Insider Traders

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The US commodities regulator’s chief enforcement director sent a cautionary message to prediction market insider traders on Tuesday, vowing that violators will face enforcement action. “We are aware of the speculation about insider trading,” CFTC enforcement director David Miller said at a panel at New York University on Tuesday. “We are watching.” “There’s a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn’t apply in the prediction markets … That is wrong.” Miller, a former federal prosecutor who was appointed to the position on March 2, said the…

Texas Lt. Gov. Lists Crypto, Prediction Markets in Charges to Senate

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The #2 Texas state official called on lawmakers to study “the sudden inundation of prediction market gambling“ as other jurisdictions take the platforms to court. Dan Patrick, Lieutenant Governor and President of the Senate in Texas, has included a study of prediction markets and crypto and blockchain as part of legislative priorities for the state’s next legislative session, scheduled to begin in January. In a Friday announcement, the lieutenant governor’s office issued 2026 interim charges for Texas Senate committees to study in preparation for the next legislature. Patrick said that…

NFL Asks Prediction Markets to Step in on ‘Easily Manipulated‘ Bets

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CFTC Chair Michael Selig signaled that the agency would defer to the football league in calling for changes to event contracts that could be manipulated by a single person. The National Football League (NFL) has reportedly sent letters to Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction market platforms in an effort to block the companies from offering trades on football events that can be easily manipulated or determined in advance.  According to a Monday ESPN report, the letters to the prediction market companies said that the NFL objected to certain types of…

User Transactions and Trading Volume Explode in Prediction Market Platforms

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Prediction market transactions have hit record highs in March, amid growing interest in political and geopolitical event contracts, improved accessibility and positive regulatory developments for the industry. According to prediction markets data tracked by Dune, the number of transactions for March is over 191 million so far, which is already a 2,838% increase compared to the same time last year.  Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs said in a report on Friday that the sector has grown significantly with Google Finance and mainstream media coverage of live odds.  “Prediction markets have…

How AI Agents Can Reshape Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

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Prediction markets aggregate human judgment in theory, but some of their consistent trading opportunities may end up captured by systems that move faster than any person can. Arbitrage opportunities can show up as brief mispricings, from outcomes that temporarily fail to sum up to 100%, to short delays in how quickly markets react to new information. Rodrigo Coelho, CEO of Edge & Node, said bots are already scanning hundreds of markets per second, a role that increasingly overlaps with more advanced AI-driven agents. “Capturing those opportunities requires monitoring thousands of…

California Governor Newsom Signs Prediction Market Insider Trading Order

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California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on Friday, expanding rules to curb public servants and those close to them from benefiting from insider trading on prediction markets tied to political or economic events they can influence or are privy to. The order prohibits “gubernatorial appointees,” public officials appointed to office by the governor of the state, from using “confidential or non-public information” gleaned from performing their duties to profit from related prediction markets. Newsom’s executive order also extends the prohibition to include spouses, family members or former business…

Detroit Set to Enter Michigan‘s Battle against Coinbase Prediction Markets

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Lawyers representing the US city of Detroit plan to file an amicus brief in Coinbase’s lawsuit against Michigan, which argues that federal regulators should have authority in overseeing prediction markets and not states.  In a Thursday filing in the US District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan related to state officials’ motion for a preliminary injunction, District Judge Shalina Kumar approved an order which will allow Detroit to file a brief supporting state authorities in their lawsuit against Coinbase. Kumar gave Detroit’s lawyers until April 3 to make the…

Bill Proposes To Stop Government Officials Betting on Prediction Markets

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US lawmakers have introduced a second bill this week aimed at curbing prediction market insider trading by government officials, amid growing concerns over such activity on major platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. In an announcement on Thursday, US lawmakers Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis and Adam Schiff unveiled the bipartisan Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. “No one should be profiting off the information and knowledge gained as a public servant, period,” Slotkin said, adding: “This bill is an important first step in placing common…

Proposed Bill Seeks to Ban President, Congress from Prediction Markets

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US lawmakers have introduced a bill aiming to ban members of the US Congress, the president and other high-ranking government officials from wagering on prediction markets. The proposed bill, a bipartisan effort from US Representative Adrian Smith and Representative Nikki Budzinski, was introduced on Tuesday and is called the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (PREDICT Act). “In recent months, we’ve seen instances of little-known traders making massive profits on events ranging from war with Iran to how long a government shutdown will last, raising necessary questions…