Turkey’s potential involvement in demining the Strait of Hormuz follows progress in US-Iran negotiations. The odds for a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 are at
The market moved on Turkey’s offer, with a 3.5% increase in odds for a nuclear deal by April 30. Volume hit $7,699 in actual USDC, suggesting cautious optimism among traders. The April 30 market remains thin, with $1,550 needed to move the odds 5 points, leaving room for further swings.
Turkey’s offer has also affected the diplomatic meetings with Iran market, currently at 1.9% YES, unchanged from yesterday but down from 22% a week ago. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete signs of diplomatic engagement. With just 6 days left until resolution, any announcement of formal talks could move this market sharply.
In the Strait of Hormuz traffic market, odds sit at
Volume in the Hormuz market trades at $36,459 in actual USDC. A $4,658 order could shift odds by 5 points, indicating relatively high liquidity compared to the other two markets.
Turkey’s involvement could be a real de-escalation signal, particularly with Reuters reporting it. At
Watch for official announcements from Ankara or Washington about the demining operation. More important: any formal statements confirming a US-Iran deal or diplomatic meetings. Those are the catalysts that will move these markets.
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