Tag: Prediction

Proposed Bill Seeks to Ban President, Congress from Prediction Markets

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US lawmakers have introduced a bill aiming to ban members of the US Congress, the president and other high-ranking government officials from wagering on prediction markets. The proposed bill, a bipartisan effort from US Representative Adrian Smith and Representative Nikki Budzinski, was introduced on Tuesday and is called the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (PREDICT Act). “In recent months, we’ve seen instances of little-known traders making massive profits on events ranging from war with Iran to how long a government shutdown will last, raising necessary questions…

Enlivex Raises Funds for Rain Prediction Market Token Buys

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Immunotherapy company Enlivex has raised $21 million via a debt financing agreement to purchase another 3 billion tokens tied to the prediction market platform Rain. Enlivex said on Tuesday it exercised an option to acquire another 3 billion Rain (RAIN) tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million on Sunday while extending its option to purchase another 272.1 billion RAIN tokens at the same price to December 2027. The debt financing came from The Lind Partners, a New York-based asset manager. “We are continuing to execute our prediction markets treasury…

BitGo, Susquehanna Launch Institutional Access to Prediction Markets

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BitGo, a digital asset custody and trading platform, and Susquehanna Crypto will collaborate to give institutional clients over-the-counter access to prediction markets, allowing them to trade event-based contracts using cryptocurrency or stablecoins held in custody. According to Tuesday’s announcement, trades will be routed through BitGo’s platform, with liquidity provided by Susquehanna, which will enable hedge funds, family offices and other large investors to execute bilateral trades without moving assets off platform or converting holdings, including Bitcoin or stablecoin, into cash. Positions are backed by crypto collateral and documented using derivatives-style…

CFTC launches innovation task force to shape US crypto, AI and prediction markets rules

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has launched an Innovation Task Force aimed at building clearer rules for firms developing products tied to crypto, blockchain, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, prediction markets, and event contracts in US derivatives markets. The task force will work alongside the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee and coordinate with other federal agencies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission and its Crypto Task Force. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said the goal is to create a regulatory framework that keeps American innovators onshore rather than pushing them to less-regulated…

BitGo and Susquehanna Crypto open OTC prediction markets to institutions

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BitGo Prime and Susquehanna Crypto have launched an institutional OTC offering that gives eligible BitGo clients access to listed prediction markets using crypto or stablecoin collateral already held on BitGo’s platform. The service is aimed at hedge funds, family offices, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals, with Susquehanna Crypto providing liquidity for the trades. Instead of moving through retail interfaces or selling digital assets to fund positions, clients can execute event-driven trades bilaterally with BitGo while posting collateral in USD, stablecoins, Bitcoin, or other crypto. BitGo said the minimum trade size is $100,000,…

Polymarket Updates Rules as Scrutiny Grows Over Prediction Markets

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Prediction platform Polymarket has updated its market integrity rules to align more closely with regulatory standards and expand its presence as a regulated trading platform amid growing scrutiny of manipulation and insider trading risks. In a Monday announcement, the company outlined updated rules governing both its global decentralized finance platform and its US exchange, which operates under compliance oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The changes come amid growing scrutiny from regulators and politicians over risks tied to insider trading, market manipulation, and the proliferation of controversial event-based…

Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin Will Drop Below $55K in 2026

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Bitcoin (BTC) may go as low as $55,000 in 2026 as the market lacks bullish catalysts amid macroeconomic uncertainties.  Key takeaways: BTC price has a 65%-71% chance of dropping below $55,000 before Dec. 31, according to prediction markets. Bettors don’t expect Strategy to sell its BTC holdings in 2026.  Whale selling and negative ETFs flows add to Bitcoin’s sell-side pressure.  Prediction markets see BTC bear market continuing The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to resume its downtrend throughout 2026, with targets as low as $40,000.  Related:…

US Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Crack Down on Prediction Markets War Bets

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Two Democratic lawmakers in the US Congress have introduced legislation in response to “government corruption” over bets on prediction markets platforms. In a Tuesday announcement, Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said they had introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and ​Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act after several Polymarket accounts made “highly unusual bets” that a war between the US and Israel against Iran would begin. Murphy said on March 4 that it was likely that people with “inside information” of US President Donald Trump’s…

MEXC launches prediction market platform amid surge in event-based trading

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Crypto exchange MEXC announced the launch of its new Prediction Market platform, allowing users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes such as geopolitical developments, macroeconomic events, and crypto industry milestones. The product turns global news events into tradable probability markets where traders can speculate on outcomes and adjust risk exposure in real time. MEXC said the platform will offer zero trading fees and millisecond-level execution speeds. Prediction markets have gained rapid traction over the past year. According to data cited by MEXC, leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi processed more…

Iran War Bets Fuel Prediction Market Surge as CFTC Rule Fight Intensifies

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Prediction market activity has climbed sharply as traders flock to contracts tied to the escalating US-Iran conflict, while Washington moves toward clearer federal rules for event contracts and a legislative push to explicitly bar markets tied to war, terrorism and death. Notional trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi rose to new all-time highs during the week ending Monday, March 9, to $2.49 billion and $2.85 billion, respectively, according to Token Terminal data. The growing activity has pushed the total notional volume across all prediction markets to $145 billion through 2.8…