Tag: Prediction

Binance Wallet integrates prediction markets through Predict.fun

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Binance Wallet has integrated prediction markets through Predict.fun, adding event-based trading to the Binance app across crypto, sports, global events, and other categories. Prediction Markets are now integrated with Binance Wallet, provided by @predictdotfun. Trade outcomes across crypto, sports, global events, and more. We’re launching a user feedback campaign. Join and share now👇 1️⃣ Open the Binance App in [Exchange] view → Go to [Markets] →… pic.twitter.com/amjjHgUQI2 — Binance Wallet (@BinanceWallet) April 9, 2026 Binance said users can access the feature through the Markets section in Exchange view, marking a…

Democrats Question CFTC Chair on Insider Trading in Prediction Markets

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The seven House members may have affirmed the commission‘s authority over prediction markets, but asked questions about its inaction on insider trading. Seven members of the US House of Representatives sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig, asking for information on the agency’s inaction on insider trading on prediction markets and event contracts related to war and conflicts. In a Monday letter, the seven US lawmakers said that the CFTC had the authority under the Commodities Exchange Act “to apply its rules and regulations for…

Fox brings Kalshi prediction market data to its media network

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Fox Corp. will begin integrating Kalshi prediction market data across Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, Fox Weather, and the FOX One streaming platform, marking one of the clearest signs yet that event-based forecasting is moving deeper into mainstream media. Kalshi will also work directly with Fox production teams to support real-time data visualization tied to political, economic, weather, and cultural events. The companies framed the partnership as a way to complement traditional reporting with market-based probabilities. Fox said Kalshi forecasts would be folded into both linear and digital content,…

Polymarket Grabs 97% of Onchain Prediction Market Fees After Overhaul

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Polymarket has become one of decentralized finance’s most profitable protocols after a pricing overhaul, generating about $7.1 million in fees in the first week of the second quarter, according to new data. That pace implies an annualized run rate of roughly $365 million if sustained, placing the onchain prediction platform among the industry’s top fee generators and giving it nearly all of the sector’s revenue, at 96.8% of onchain prediction market fees. The gains follow a March 30 pricing change that pushed daily fees to around $1 million, a level…

Turn Prediction Markets Into A Decision-Making Operating System

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Opinion by: Jesus Rodriguez, co-founder and CTO at Sentora. Human coordination is bottlenecked by a terrible algorithm. When a DAO, a corporation, or a nation-state makes a decision, it relies on “manual feature engineering” like committees and vibes-based voting. High-dimensional, emotional inputs are compressed through the protocol of human politics and hope for a decent output.  It’s slow, it does not scale and there is rarely a penalty for being wrong. Decades ago, Robin Hanson proposed a mathematically elegant alternative called Futarchy: “Vote on values, bet on beliefs.” You define…

Iran War Bets Put Crypto Prediction Markets on the Macro Map

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Prediction markets rapidly repriced the odds of US escalation in the Iran conflict, offering a real-time signal of geopolitical risk for traders. Odds on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi shifted in real time as President Donald Trump paired new threats with signals of possible negotiations on Sunday, while Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 3.5% on Monday. Crypto prediction markets are no longer a sideshow during periods of geopolitical tension, with professional desks increasingly using them to gauge macro risk, according to Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori.  …

Prediction Markets Are Testing Legal Limits in Strict Asian Markets

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Prediction markets are pushing into Asia’s largest economies, even as local gambling laws place strict limits on betting activities. Asia represents a combination of scale, active retail participation and limited local alternatives, making it too large to ignore despite regulatory risks. That’s a similar pattern seen in crypto, where technology moved faster than regulation and licensing frameworks, prompting exchanges to enter markets before clear rules were in place.  Like many startups, the industry’s heavyweights adopted the “better to ask for forgiveness than permission” approach to scale. Polymarket, one of the…

US military activity in Iran drives prediction market surge for troop presence

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A US combat search-and-rescue mission is active in Iran’s Khuzestan province after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down. The market for “US forces enter Iran by April 30” has surged to 86% YES, up from 62% in the last 24 hours. The confirmed US military activity in Iran has driven the market’s reaction. The April 30 market spiked, indicating expectations of ongoing or expanded operations. The December 31 market is at 90.5% YES, reflecting a belief in a prolonged US presence. The 24-point rise in April’s odds suggests traders…

CFTC Sues 3 US States, Claims Sole Authority Over Prediction Markets

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The Trump administration is suing Illinois, Connecticut, Arizona, and their gaming regulators over the federal government’s right to regulate prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the US Department of Justice filed separate lawsuits on Thursday against the three states. In 2025, those states and their gaming regulators sent cease and desist letters to prediction platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, claiming that the event contracts offered by the platforms violated state gambling laws and licensing requirements. The federal financial regulator’s lawsuit against Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Attorney General…

Crypto VC Paradigm to Launch Prediction Market Terminal

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Crypto-focused venture capital firm Paradigm is reportedly building a prediction markets terminal, joining a wave of Wall Street companies looking for a way to serve the fast-growing sector. Led by Paradigm partner Arjun Balaji, the prediction market offering will cater to professional traders and market makers, Fortune said in a report on Wednesday, citing sources that said they started working on the project in late 2025. Paradigm is also considering rolling out an internal market-making desk — an in-house team that provides liquidity by placing buy and sell orders —…