Tag: Prediction

Bitwise And GraniteShares File Election Prediction ETFs

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Exchange-traded fund issuers Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch funds tied to event contracts on the outcome of US elections. Bitwise filed a prospectus on Tuesday for a new lineup of ETFs branded as PredictionShares, with six prediction market-style ETFs on NYSE Arca. The first two funds will pay out if either a Democrat or a Republican wins the U.S. presidential election in November 2028. The next two will pay out if either Democrats or Republicans win the Senate in November 2026,…

CFTC files brief to defend exclusive authority over US prediction markets

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency responsible for overseeing derivatives, has filed an amicus brief asserting its exclusive federal oversight of prediction markets in response to state lawsuits, said Chair Michael Selig in a video message released Tuesday. I have some big news to announce… pic.twitter.com/3OBNTaOnIL — Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) February 17, 2026 According to Selig, Congress gave the CFTC broad power over commodity-based contracts, such as prediction markets, and this authority should not be challenged by states or other regulators. “Thanks to POTUS, we’ve reversed course on…

CFTC Chair Doubles Down on Defending Prediction Markets

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Michael Selig, who chairs the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission under President Donald Trump, announced the agency would be responding to what he called an “onslaught of state-led litigation” against prediction market platforms. In a video posted to X on Tuesday, Selig said that the CFTC had filed an amicus brief — also known as a “friend of the court” brief — to “defend its exclusive jurisdiction” in regulating prediction markets, which he equated to derivative markets. The chair warned that any state-level entities challenging the CFTC’s authority over such…

Michael Selig: Prediction markets are reshaping pop culture engagement, the CFTC’s pivotal role in regulation, and insider trading complexities in commodities

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Prediction markets are increasingly integral to pop culture and consumer engagement. The regulatory landscape for prediction markets is expected to become more liberal. Unresolved issues in prediction markets include ambiguous outcomes and insider trading concerns. Key Takeaways Prediction markets are increasingly integral to pop culture and consumer engagement. The regulatory landscape for prediction markets is expected to become more liberal. Unresolved issues in prediction markets include ambiguous outcomes and insider trading concerns. The CFTC is at a pivotal moment to shape the future of emerging markets like prediction markets and…

Prediction Markets Should Become Hedges for Consumers

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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said he is starting to “worry” about the direction of prediction markets and suggested that they shift to become marketplaces to hedge against price exposure risk for consumers. Prediction markets are “over-converging” to “unhealthy” products that are focused on short-term price betting and speculative behavior as opposed to long-term building, Buterin said in an X post. Source: Vitalik Buterin Instead, onchain prediction markets coupled with AI large-language models (LLMs) should become general hedging mechanisms to provide consumers with price stability for goods and services, Buterin said.…

Circle partners with Polymarket to enhance prediction market settlement

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Circle, the issuer of USDC stablecoin, on Thursday revealed a new partnership with Polymarket aimed at enhancing a reliable, dollar-based settlement infrastructure on the platform. As part of the partnership, Polymarket will migrate from the bridged USDC on Polygon to the native USDC, improving capital efficiency, scalability, and institutional compatibility. Executives from both companies said the collaboration combines Circle’s financial infrastructure with Polymarket’s innovative market model to deliver a stronger user experience. With native USDC fully backed and redeemable for US dollars, the transition supports consistent settlement standards as trading…

CFTC Pulls Proposal Banning Sports Prediction Markets

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The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has withdrawn a Biden administration-era proposal that would have banned sports and political prediction markets, some of the most popular event contracts today. The recently confirmed CFTC chair, Mike Selig, said on Wednesday that the agency has withdrawn a 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that sought to ban event contracts for sports, politics and war, among other topics, classifying them as “contrary to the public interest.” Selig said the proposal “reflected the prior administration’s frolic into merit regulation with an outright prohibition on political…

Crypto.com Launches OG Prediction Market Platform

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Crypto.com has spun out its prediction markets business, first launched in 2024, into a standalone platform called OG, competing with the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi.  OG is powered by Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered exchange and clearinghouse and affiliate of Crypto.com.  OG said on Tuesday that it is only available in the United States for now. Entering a ‘deca-billion dollar’ industry Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, highlighted the firm’s growth in the prediction market space as the reason for launching a dedicated…

Polymarket, Kalshi Give Free Groceries Amid Prediction Market Boom

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Two leading prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, have both turned to giving away groceries amid a fight for dominance in the fast-growing prediction markets space. Kalshi offered a $50 grocery giveaway to over 1,000 people in Manhattan on Tuesday, while competitor Polymarket announced plans to open a free grocery store starting next week. Thousands have already picked up their free Kalshi groceries! We are being told we’ve already inspired other companies to keep up the initiative! 2 more hours to get yours Westside Market | 84 3rd Ave. NYC…

HYPE Rises 20% After Hyperliquid Backs Prediction Markets

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HYPE gained double digits on Monday after the team behind HyperCore, the core infrastructure powering Hyperliquid’s layer-1 network, said it will support the HIP-4 proposal to expand into prediction markets. The integration would allow fully collateralized contracts on Hyperliquid, the largest decentralized perpetual futures crypto platform, enabling traders to wager on political elections, sports and other markets. In an X post on Monday, Hyperliquid said the support was driven by “extensive user demand” for prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments, while adding that HIP-4 could allow other novel applications to…