Tag: Prediction

Prediction Markets Will Scale As Far As Resolution Infrastructure Allows

admin

Opinion by: David Azubike, lead analyst at Blocksquare Prediction markets are no longer an experimental corner of crypto. Data now shows something durable: a financial category with sustained volume, diversified participation and increasing institutional attention. Prediction markets are emerging as a new “arbitrage arena” for crypto traders. Monthly notional volume in prediction markets scaled to more than $13 billion by late 2025 from less than $100 million in early 2024 as markets diversified across verticals, according to a joint research report from Dune and Keyrock.  Data showing sustained post election…

CFTC issues advisory on prediction markets as event contracts expand

admin

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory on prediction markets, reminding exchanges of their regulatory obligations as event contracts grow rapidly across trading platforms. The guidance outlines requirements under the Commodity Exchange Act for designated contract markets listing event contracts, including product submission rules and core market integrity principles. The division said the advisory aims to support innovation while ensuring exchanges comply with existing regulations. The notice also highlights considerations around sports-related event contracts, one of the fastest-growing areas of prediction market trading. The advisory…

Utah Set to Block Prediction Markets Like Kalshi and Polymarket

admin

The US state of Utah is set to block prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, escalating a growing dispute between state regulators and federal authorities over how the industry should be regulated. On Wednesday, Utah’s HB243 (Gambling Revisions) bill was sent to the governor’s desk after passing the Utah House on Feb. 10 and clearing the Senate on Feb. 27. The bill defines “proposition betting” as gambling. Proposition bets are wagers on individual events within a game, such as how a specific athlete performs or whether a team…

Senator Introduces ‘DEATH BETS’ Act Against War-Linked Prediction Markets

admin

US Democratic Party Senator Adam Schiff introduced legislation Tuesday that would explicitly bar federally regulated prediction-market platforms from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths. The bill, called the DEATH BETS Act, would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to make those contracts prohibited for entities overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In a statement announcing the bill, Schiff said markets that let traders profit from violent events create incentives for the misuse of classified information, threaten national security and encourage violence. He said prediction…

Kalshi Faces Lawsuit Over Khamenei Prediction Market

admin

A class action lawsuit has been filed against prediction market Kalshi, alleging that the death carveout in the “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market was not properly disclosed to users and that the platform failed to pay out winning trades. The plaintiffs said that the death carveout policy was “not incorporated into the user-facing rules summary,” and was not displayed in a way that would notify a “reasonable consumer” of the policy or its effects. “Defendants, themselves, later acknowledged that their prior disclosures were ‘grammatically ambiguous,’” the lawsuit filing…

Iran Strike Bets Usher Moves to Curb Prediction Markets

admin

Senator Chris Murphy says it’s likely people close to Donald Trump with “inside information” made bets on prediction markets on when the US would strike Iran. US Democratic lawmakers are working on a bill to police prediction markets after raising insider trading concerns over bets made on the timing of Israeli and US strikes on Iran. Democrat Senator Chris Murphy said in a video posted to X on Wednesday that what he claimed were White House insiders made a “very specific bet” on Friday that the US would go to…

Prediction Markets Risk Trading Block in Nevada After Court Ruling

admin

A US federal court ruling has increased the risk that Nevada regulators could seek to halt prediction-market trading in the state after a judge sent a dispute involving Polymarket’s parent company Blockratize back to state court. A federal judge rejected arguments that US regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fully preempts state gaming laws for prediction markets, according to a Monday order. The judge found that the CEA’s savings clause does not completely displace state authority and that the companies had not…

Nasdaq Joins Wall Street Push For Prediction Markets

admin

One of Nasdaq’s options exchanges, Nasdaq MRX, has filed to offer cash-settled, binary-style contracts on the Nasdaq-100 Index, adding to a wave of Wall Street firms testing the prediction market waters.  Nasdaq, the firm behind the second-largest stock exchange by market capitalization, is looking to offer “Outcome Related Options” for yes-or-no bets, priced between 1 cent and $1, according to its filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. The offering would allow traders to take binary positions on events linked to the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq-100 Micro indexes…

Nasdaq files to launch binary options on Nasdaq 100 in prediction market push

admin

Exchange seeks SEC approval for yes or no contracts on flagship index as event trading expands. Nasdaq, the global stock exchange operator and financial technology provider, is pushing into the prediction market sector with plans to launch binary options tied to its flagship index. The company’s subsidiary Nasdaq MRX filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to introduce cash-settled contracts linked to the Nasdaq 100, according to regulatory documents. The European-style binary options would function similarly to short-term directional wagers offered on crypto-native platforms. The filing comes as prediction markets…

Polymarket’s Lawsuit Could Decide Who Regulates US Prediction Markets

admin

Key takeaways Polymarket’s federal lawsuit against Massachusetts could determine whether prediction markets are regulated solely by the CFTC or also by states. The dispute centers on whether event contracts qualify as financial derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act or as gambling under state laws. The lawsuit followed state-level actions against platforms like Kalshi, with Massachusetts and Nevada moving to restrict sports-related prediction contracts. A ruling in favor of Polymarket could establish uniform national oversight and prevent a patchwork of differing state regulations. Prediction markets are platforms where people trade contracts…