Tag: Prediction

Cboe plans to bring back binary options to compete with prediction markets

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Cboe Global Markets is considering bringing back binary options contracts, also known as “all-or-nothing” options contracts, for retail investors, a move that would put the exchange in direct competition with prediction market platforms, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Chicago-based exchange operator has opened early-stage conversations with retail brokerages and is exploring new contract offerings, such as revised binary options, in coordination with market makers to handle trade execution. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have gained prominence since late 2024, when Kalshi successfully challenged the CFTC’s attempt to…

Coinbase Launches Prediction Markets in all 50 US States via Kalshi

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More than a month after announcing plans to move deeper into prediction markets, Coinbase said it would launch its offering for ”sports, politics, culture and more.” Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced the rollout of prediction markets offering in all 50 US states in partnership with Kalshi. In a Wednesday X post, Coinbase said it was offering trades on “any real-world outcomes across sports, politics, culture and more” following the launch of prediction markets. The announcement followed the exchange’s plans for onchain prediction markets in partnership with Kalshi in December.  Event contracts…

Prediction Markets Must Use KYC To Curb Insider Trades: Messari

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Concerns over insider trading on prediction markets have intensified after a series of high-profile bets on geopolitical events, prompting fresh questions over whether it’s even feasible to curb such practices in the growing industry sector. Preventing insider trading is realistically possible only on prediction markets applying Know Your Customer (KYC) measures, according to Austin Weiler, a research analyst at the blockchain intelligence firm Messari. “For KYC’d platforms, the most effective mechanism is to restrict access upfront for users to specific markets,” Weiler told Cointelegraph, adding that state actors could be…

Venezuela Leaker Jailed, Trump Says As Prediction Markets Face Scrutiny

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US President Donald Trump said the “leaker on Venezuela” has been jailed, a remark that has renewed scrutiny of prediction markets following a series of well-timed bets earlier this month. “The leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail right now,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Wednesday, according to a video posted by The Wall Street Journal. Although Trump did not mention prediction markets, blockchain analysts such as Lookonchain have speculated that the leaker may be linked to a cluster of Polymarket accounts that placed concentrated…

NCAA Asks CFTC to Suspend College Prediction Markets

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The NCAA wants the CFTC to tighten rules on college sport prediction markets, including age and advertising restrictions and anti-harassment measures. The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to suspend college sports prediction markets until rules are implemented to protect student athletes. NCAA President Charlie Baker asked CFTC Chair Michael Selig in a letter on Wednesday to “suspend collegiate sport prediction markets until a more robust system with appropriate safeguards is in place.” Baker said that the “growth and haphazard nature” of sports…

Backpack Exchange Launches Unified Prediction Market Beta

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Backpack, a cryptocurrency exchange founded by former employees of Alameda Research and the defunct FTX, is entering prediction markets with an ambitious plan to unify balances from different types of trading. The exchange has launched private beta testing for its new platform, called the Unified Prediction Portfolio, Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante said in a post on X on Tuesday. “This isn’t yet another wrapper over Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other prediction market platform,” Ferrante wrote, describing the forthcoming market as a “native system with everything tokenized and risk profiled, together.”…

Prediction Market Trading Volumes Soar to Record Highs

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Recent US regulatory action seeking to restrict prediction markets hasn’t slowed activity in the first weeks of 2026, with trading volumes hitting a record $701.7 million on Monday. Prediction market Kalshi accounted for two-thirds of total trading volume at $465.9 million, while competitors Polymarket and Opinion tallied $100 million worth of trades, Dune Analytics data from Gate Research shows. The $701.7 million tally beat the previous record of $666.6 million set the day before, with Kalshi leading trading volumes by a similar margin. Daily trading volume on prediction markets since September…

Prediction markets see over 65% odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader being ousted in 2026

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Key Takeaways Polymarket and Kalshi show rising odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader exiting office, with contracts now pricing over 65% by 2026. Trump has threatened consequences if violence escalates, further fueling geopolitical volatility. Share this article Prediction markets now place odds of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stepping down or being removed by the end of 2026 at roughly 65%, as mass protests and a deepening economic crisis fuel nationwide unrest. On Polymarket odds of Khamenei’s departure by December 31 have surged from 30% in late December to nearly…

US Lawmaker Introduces Bill to Ban Politically-Related Prediction Bets

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New York Representative Ritchie Torres, with the backing of more than 30 other Democrats in the House of Representatives, has introduced legislation following a Polymarket user netting $400,000 on a bet related to the removal of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.  In a Friday notice, Torres said he had introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. According to the New York representative, the bill would prohibit “federal elected officials, political appointees, Executive Branch employees, and congressional staff from buying, selling, or exchanging prediction market contracts tied to…

BitMart launches prediction market for crypto and event trading

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Key Takeaways BitMart has officially launched its Prediction Market, a new product that allows users to trade forecasts. The product features a binary yes-or-no structure, with contracts priced between $0 and $1 to represent probability. Share this article BitMart, a global crypto exchange, today launched a prediction market feature supporting trading on crypto price movements and popular events. The new product enables users to engage in USDT-based trading across various categories, including crypto forecasts, sports outcomes, and public figures. The prediction market uses a binary contract structure, with trades settled…