Tag: traders

Ceasefire odds drop to 1% for April 7 as traders remain skeptical

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Ceasefire odds by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. Talks involve the US, Iran, and mediators pushing for a 45-day ceasefire to restart negotiations. Traders remain skeptical. The April 7 market is nearly flat, showing doubt about immediate progress. The April 15 and April 30 markets show slight optimism, with odds at 6% and 18% YES, respectively. Traders expect movement in late April or May. Odds jump 19 points between April 30 and May 31, suggesting a potential catalyst. Trading volume hit $431,402 in…

Ceasefire odds plummet as Trump threatens Iran, traders eye May for movement

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Trump’s threat of strikes on Iran and Iran’s warning of retaliation have plummeted ceasefire odds. The April 7 ceasefire market sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago. The market’s drop shows traders’ pessimism amid escalating tensions. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 22% a week ago. April 30 odds are at 17.5%, falling from 40% last week. Traders see potential movement after April 30, with odds jumping 19 points by May 31. This suggests a possible catalyst in that period,…

Traders raise odds for US ground troops in Iran to 86% by April 30

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Alan Eyre claims seizing Iran’s enriched uranium would require risky ground forces. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is now at 86% YES, up from 62% just yesterday. Traders took Eyre’s comments seriously, driving the odds higher for US ground troop involvement in Iran. The April 30 market moved significantly, reflecting the increased likelihood of a ground operation. Eyre’s statement, while from a tier-3 source, suggests a possible escalation path aligning with prior military actions like Operation Epic Fury. The December 31 market sits at 90% YES, indicating strong…

Ether Risks $1.7K Retest As Traders Fail To Overcome Key Resistance Zone

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Ether (ETH) price may be at risk of a correction to new year-to-date lows, especially if the bulls fail to secure daily candle closes above the $2,150 to $2,400 range. Ether’s price action continues to be driven by US and global macroeconomic events, along with investors’ appetite for risk assets during the US and Israel-Iran war. As data shows more than $1 billion in futures-driven sell pressure, the chance of Ether falling below $1,800 rises. Ether’s main challenge sits at $2,400 Repeat rejections near $2,150 continue to cap Ether rallies,…

Oil reversal and crowded shorts keep crypto traders on edge

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Crude oil just pulled a classic bait-and-switch. WTI surged on geopolitical tensions, then promptly gave back nearly $3 a barrel, erasing the kind of fear premium that usually sends inflation hawks into a frenzy. In theory, cheaper oil means less inflation pressure, which means the Fed has more room to cut rates, which means risk assets should rally. Crypto didn’t get the memo. Bitcoin hovered near $67K, Ethereum slipped below $2,100, and the Fear and Greed Index sat at 12, firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory. The culprit: a derivatives market…

Bitcoin and Stocks Face Fresh Lows Under a US Dollar Breakout, Say Traders

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Bitcoin (BTC) saw another $69,000 rejection on Thursday as risk-assets suffered over US-Iran war headlines. Key points: Bitcoin faces fresh downside pressure as stocks and gold fall on US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation. US dollar strength ramps up on the back of an anticipated breakout to yearly highs. Bitcoin would face “new lows” from a dollar comeback, a trader warns. Bitcoin, stocks and gold all fall on Trump address Data from TradingView showed 2% daily BTC price losses with lows near $66,200. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView…

Solana (SOL) Cracks Lower, Traders Brace for Volatile Selloff

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Aayush Jindal, a luminary in the world of financial markets, whose expertise spans over 15 illustrious years in the realms of Forex and cryptocurrency trading. Renowned for his unparalleled proficiency in providing technical analysis, Aayush is a trusted advisor and senior market expert to investors worldwide, guiding them through the intricate landscapes of modern finance with his keen insights and astute chart analysis. From a young age, Aayush exhibited a natural aptitude for deciphering complex systems and unraveling patterns. Fueled by an insatiable curiosity for understanding market dynamics, he embarked…

CFTC Warns Prediction Market Insider Traders

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The US commodities regulator’s chief enforcement director sent a cautionary message to prediction market insider traders on Tuesday, vowing that violators will face enforcement action. “We are aware of the speculation about insider trading,” CFTC enforcement director David Miller said at a panel at New York University on Tuesday. “We are watching.” “There’s a myth in mainstream media and social media that insider trading doesn’t apply in the prediction markets … That is wrong.” Miller, a former federal prosecutor who was appointed to the position on March 2, said the…

Bitcoin Strength Holds Into $68K But Pro Traders Remain Cautious

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Key takeaways: Bitcoin reclaimed $68,000 as President Trump hinted at ending the Iran War even if the Strait of Hormuz remained partially closed. Bitcoin derivatives data show high fear, with put options at a premium and low demand for bullish leveraged trades. Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $68,000 on Monday following the gains in the S&P 500 after US President Donald Trump suggested that the administration may consider ways to end the US and Israel-Iran war without a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Bitcoin traders have kept a…

Bitcoin Unlikely to Hit New Highs in 2026, Traders Say

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It could be more than a year before Bitcoin regains its all-time high of $126,100, recorded in October last year, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. “I do not see a new price high in 2026,” Brandt told Cointelegraph. “Not until maybe the second quarter of 2027,” he said, though he also acknowledged that “this is all guesswork.” Pundits on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket are similarly pessimistic, giving just a 15% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 in 2026. Prediction market on “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?”…