VTB Bank, Russia’s second-largest state-owned bank, forecasts Bitcoin hitting $250,000 in the medium term, but the Polymarket contract for “Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by December 31, 2026” sits at
## Market reaction
The December 31 market has not moved despite the forecast. It remains at 4.9% YES with 251 days left for resolution. The prediction coincides with a crypto bill advancing in Russia’s State Duma, but traders have not repriced the contract.
## Why it matters
Daily trading volume is $505 in USDC, and it takes only $1,589 to move the market by 5 percentage points. The contract is thin and vulnerable to large single trades. At 4.9%, traders are clearly skeptical of the $200,000 target, likely waiting for Bitcoin to surpass its recent all-time high before committing capital.
## What to watch
VTB’s forecast is attention-grabbing but looks more aspirational than actionable without near-term regulatory or macroeconomic catalysts. A YES share at 4.9¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $200,000 by year-end, a potential
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