Day: April 27, 2026

Assassination attempt at dinner raises Trump Cabinet security concerns

admin

A lone-actor assassination attempt targeting President Trump and his administration at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner has pushed traders to reassess Cabinet stability. The market for “next to leave Trump Cabinet” faces a potential 15% increase in YES odds as fears grow over personal safety of Cabinet members. Market reaction The next to leave Trump Cabinet market is currently inactive, but odds could shift sharply if any Cabinet members express unease or resign over personal safety. Traders are pricing in a potential 15% YES odds increase tied directly to security…

Senator Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair as May 15 confirmation odds rise

admin

Senator Thom Tillis has announced his support for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, following the DOJ’s closure of its investigation into Jerome Powell. The odds for Warsh’s confirmation by May 1 sit at 1.9% YES, while the May 15 market surged to 93.5% YES. Tillis’s endorsement removes a real obstacle from Warsh’s nomination, which now faces a favorable Senate Banking Committee vote where Republicans hold a slim majority. The May 15 market jumped 20 points, meaning traders expect a confirmation catalyst in the next two weeks. The May…