Tag: trump

Trump to investigate mysterious deaths of 10 American scientists

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Trump vowed to investigate the deaths and disappearances of 10 American scientists. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago. The scientist probe announcement didn’t directly move the market. The action is in the ceasefire contracts. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market jumped sharply as the ceasefire took hold. Odds for Israel announcing a suspension of its offensive by April 30 are at 96.2% YES, up from 87% yesterday. The term structure shows a 7-point jump…

Trump warns of resumed fighting, impacting Bitcoin and Ethereum markets

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Trump stated “If there’s no deal, fighting resumes,” adding geopolitical tension to crypto markets. The Bitcoin $60,000 dip market sits at 15% YES for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April. Market reaction The Bitcoin dip market holds at 15% YES with 14 days left in April. Traders are pricing in increased volatility from the geopolitical tension, which could push Bitcoin prices lower. The Ethereum $2,900 target market is also under pressure, with the likelihood of reaching $2,900 within the specified period decreasing. Bearish sentiment in both markets tracks the broader…

Trump rebukes Italy’s Meloni over US military action stance in Iran, Lebanon

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President Trump publicly rebuked Italy’s Giorgia Meloni for refusing to support US military actions in Iran and Lebanon, and the Polymarket contract on US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES. Meloni’s refusal to provide Italian bases for US operations has fueled speculation about the US’s commitment to NATO. The April 30 odds remain low at 1.1%, but they’re up from 1% yesterday, a slight increase in trader skepticism. The December 31, 2026 market remains unpriced. This rift fits Trump’s broader pattern of pressuring NATO allies on…

Trump announces first Lebanese-Israeli talks in over 30 years

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Trump announced the first direct talks between Lebanese and Israeli leaders in over 30 years. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market is at 81.1% YES, up from 66% yesterday. The June 30 ceasefire market jumped to 81.1% YES after Trump’s announcement. US-mediated talks on April 14 preceded this move. The April 30 market sits at 68.5% YES, showing traders are pricing in a real chance of near-term resolution. Trading volume in the ceasefire market is $1.08M in actual USDC over the past 24 hours. The largest move…

Trump says Iran war nearly over, S&P 500 futures soar on reduced risk

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Trump stated the Iran war is “very close to over,” and the Polymarket contract for the S&P 500 opening higher on April 15 now sits at 99.9% YES, up from 52% twenty-four hours ago. The S&P 500 sub-market jumped from 52% to near certainty as traders priced in reduced geopolitical risk. The move happened quickly, with the contract reaching 99.9% within a single day. Total volume on the contract is $107,583 in USDC. The largest single price move was a 22-point drop at 12:02 PM, a sign that volatility persisted…

TRUMP Token Whales Loading Up Before Luncheon Event

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Crypto whales have continued to load up on the TRUMP memecoin ahead of the luncheon at US President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida this month, which offers entry to the largest holders. One whale withdrew about 105,754 TRUMP from Binance on Saturday to add to its stash of 1.13 million TRUMP, worth about $3.2 million, according to an X post from blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain on Sunday. Two days earlier, another whale withdrew 850,488 Trump from the crypto exchange Bybit. On Monday, another holder increased their TRUMP stash to…

Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade as Iran nuclear talks collapse, Bitcoin extends losses

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Bitcoin deepened its losses on Sunday morning after President Donald Trump stated that the US would move to impose a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after diplomacy talks with Iran failed to produce an agreement over Tehran’s nuclear program. In a statement on Truth Social, Trump said recent negotiations with Iranian officials, led by Vice President JD Vance ended without agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program, which he described as the “only point that really mattered.” He reiterated his position that Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear…

Brad Gerstner: Over 100,000 kids signing up daily for Trump accounts, equity-based giving pledges could address wealth disparity, and rising oil prices are driving inflation forecasts

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Key takeaways Over 100,000 kids are signing up daily for Trump accounts, indicating high engagement levels. The Trump accounts are set to go live on July 4, marking a significant launch. A giving pledge around equities could help address wealth disparity. Geopolitical events are causing volatility in oil prices, impacting the market. Rising oil prices are leading to increased inflation and lower GDP forecasts. The market believes sustained conflict is unlikely, affecting investor sentiment. Short-term oil price spikes are expected, but IEA releases will mitigate them. The worst geopolitical outcomes…

US Lawmakers Question whether Trump will Attend Memecoin Event: Report

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Three US senators have reportedly asked one of the people behind US President Donald Trump’s memecoin whether the president intends to “dangle access” to himself at a luncheon event, given he is already planning to attend the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner the same day.  According to a Thursday Politico report, Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, and Adam Schiff sent a letter to Bill Zanker, the individual behind the launch of the memecoin Official Trump (TRUMP). The lawmakers questioned whether Trump had been leveraging his appearance at a luncheon event…

ARK Invest Buys $13M Robinhood Shares Amid Trump Accounts Rollout

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Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has increased its exposure to Robinhood Markets, purchasing roughly $13 million worth of shares after the trading platform secured a role in a new government-backed savings initiative. ARK’s Tuesday trade disclosures show a fresh accumulation of Robinhood shares across multiple funds. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) led the charge, purchasing 132,116 HOOD shares. Additional buying came from the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), which added 33,607 shares, and the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), which picked up 16,918 shares. Related: Bernstein sees potential bottom for crypto…