Tag: trump

Trump engages in conflict influenced by Netanyahu, US naval blockade active

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MSNBC reports Trump has engaged in conflict influenced by Netanyahu, with U.S. Central Command active in the Arabian Sea. The odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 are currently at ? YES. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is enforcing a naval blockade in the region, and these operations have pushed the perceived likelihood of further military action higher. The U.S. invasion of Iran market reflects this, though no ground deployment has occurred yet. The Trump announces end of military operations against Iran market for April 21…

Trump sets end-of-day deadline for Iran uranium negotiations

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President Trump has issued an end-of-day deadline for Iran negotiations. The market on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sits at 25.4% YES, down from 50% just 24 hours ago. The ultimatum hit the Iranian demands market hard. It’s at 43% YES, sliding from 62% yesterday. Traders appear to read Trump’s hardline stance as shrinking room for concessions like oil sanction relief. The Iran ending uranium enrichment market tells the same story. The drop from 50% to 27.8% in a day suggests traders doubt a breakthrough in…

Trump convenes Situation Room meeting as Iran closes Strait of Hormuz

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President Trump has convened a White House Situation Room meeting to address Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sit at 13% YES, down from 22% yesterday. The Situation Room meeting implies a shift toward military strategy rather than diplomacy, and the diplomatic engagement odds dropped accordingly. The market resolves in 12 days. It saw a 6-point spike earlier that didn’t hold as traders reassessed the likelihood of talks. The order book depth requires just $283 to move the price 5 points, making…

Trump claims Iran deal near despite uranium enrichment disputes

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President Trump claims a deal with Iran is near, though uranium enrichment disagreements persist. The market for Iran agreeing to end enrichment by April 30 is at 39.2% YES, up from 35% yesterday. Traders see diplomatic momentum, but Tehran’s pushback on US claims keeps the odds low. The April 21 ceasefire extension sits at 8%, despite Trump’s optimism. The April 30 peace deal is at 46.5% YES, up from 17% a week ago. The Iran enrichment market trades $23,824 daily in real USDC, with just $599 needed to move odds…

Trump claims ‘way ahead of schedule’ on Operation Epic Fury in Iran

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Trump’s update on Operation Epic Fury claims swift progress. Odds for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 sit at 19.5% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. The market didn’t move despite Trump’s assertion of being ahead of schedule. Obtaining enriched uranium remains a long-shot bet at 19.5% YES. The sub-market for May 31 has shown minimal historical fluctuation, with a 2-point spike as the largest recent movement. There are 45 days until resolution, so any confirmed progress could shift these odds sharply. The US-Iran ceasefire announcement odds…

Trump says US-Iran talks to continue, differences minimal

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Trump announced that US-Iran talks will continue over the weekend, saying differences are minimal. A permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 28.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The negotiations have moved several markets. The April 22 peace deal market is at 28.5% YES, a 3-point gain over the week. The April 30 market rose to 46.5% YES from 17%. The May 31 market jumped to 65.5% YES. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market is at 44.2% YES, up from 35% a day ago. Traders are pricing…

Trump claims Iran suspends nuclear program indefinitely

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Trump announced Iran’s indefinite suspension of its nuclear program. The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 is now at 55.9% YES, up from 35% yesterday. Odds in the Iran uranium enrichment agreement market rose quickly after the announcement. With 14 days until the deadline, any official confirmation from Iran could push this higher. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market also ticked up to 66% YES, suggesting some traders are pricing in broader de-escalation. Daily volume on the uranium enrichment market is at…

Trump signals potential concessions in Iran talks

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A senior Gulf official says Trump is signaling potential concessions in Iran talks. The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief this April is at 43%, up from 34% yesterday. Market reaction The Iranian Demands Trump Agreement market rose to 43%, up from 28% last week. Daily volume is $1,975 in USDC. The market is thin, requiring just $330 to move it 5 points, which makes it prone to sharp swings. The US-Iran Permanent Peace Deal market has also moved. Odds for a deal by April 22 sit…

Trump claims Iran to hand over “nuclear dust” from bombed facilities

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Trump claims Iran has agreed to hand over “nuclear dust” from its bombed facilities. The odds of Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 are now at 39.2% YES, up from 35% yesterday. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market rose from 35% to its current level after the statement. Traders appear to read Trump’s claim as a possible step toward de-escalation. The market’s largest recent move was a 3-point spike at 5:48 PM. With 14 days left until the end of April, any official confirmation from Iran could push odds…

Israel and Hezbollah agree to 10-day ceasefire, Trump calls it ‘historic day’

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A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has been announced, with Trump calling it a potential “historic day.” The ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago. Market reaction The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sits at 97% YES, up from 67% seven days ago. The term structure shows only a 3-point increase over the 61 days between April 30 and June 30, which points to confidence in the ceasefire holding past the initial period. The Israel suspension…