Tag: trump

Rep. Lieu suggests Kash Patel next in Trump Cabinet shakeup by June 30

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Rep. Ted Lieu says FBI Director Kash Patel is “next” for a Trump Cabinet shakeup. The Patel out by June 30 market is at 61% YES, up from 30% a week ago. Market reaction Kash Patel out by June 30 climbed from 30% to 61% over seven days. The April 30 market sits at 19%, meaning traders expect action after that short-term window rather than before it. The December 31 market is at 82% YES, pricing in a high probability of Patel’s eventual departure. The gap between the April 30…

Trump claims Iranian nuclear sites obliterated, uranium extraction doubted

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Trump’s post claiming destruction of Iranian nuclear sites has pushed the probability of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 to 15%, with traders skeptical about feasibility under current conditions. Market reaction The market for US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 has cooled. Trump’s claim of “obliteration” implies less accessible uranium for the US, consistent with prior assessments of severe damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Traders doubt the feasibility of extracting significant nuclear material from sites described as destroyed. Why it matters No rebuilding of enrichment…

Trump sees ceasefire extension unlikely without deal, market skeptical

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Trump declared a ceasefire extension “highly unlikely” without a deal. The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 is now at 18.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday. Market reaction The market reflects heavy skepticism. Trump’s comments suggest a possible resumption of military operations, which has traders pricing in failure. The market saw a 4-point spike to 22% earlier but settled back — traders initially reacted to optimistic headlines before the full context of Trump’s remarks pulled the price down. With two days left, a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough…

Tucker Carlson apologizes for Trump support, sparking feud speculation

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Tucker Carlson’s public apology for supporting Donald Trump has pushed the odds of Trump publicly insulting Carlson by April 30, 2026, to 100%, with the market showing complete certainty. Carlson’s criticism of Trump’s policies, particularly on Iran, has driven the market to full conviction. The contract for Trump publicly insulting Carlson by April 30 sits at 100% with no price movement over recent days. Traders appear unanimous that a public insult will happen. Combined 24-hour volume is zero USDC, meaning traders are sitting on existing positions rather than opening new…

White House credits Trump, Operation Epic Fury for nearing Iran peace deal

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The White House says a good deal with Iran is close, crediting Operation Epic Fury and Trump’s negotiating ability. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 17.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday. Market reaction The peace deal markets show clear separation across deadlines. The April 30 market is at 37.5%, while May 31 and June 30 are at 59.0% and 69.5%. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, which points to traders expecting a major development in early May. The diplomatic meeting markets,…

Trump pushes for US-Iran ceasefire resolution as deadline looms

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Trump is pushing to end the US-Iran conflict on his terms with the ceasefire expiring tomorrow. The market for Trump announcing the ceasefire’s end by April 21 is at 8% YES, up from 6% yesterday. Market reaction The ceasefire end market jumped 10 points over the past 24 hours, indicating traders increasingly expect the ceasefire to collapse before the deadline. Meanwhile, odds for Trump’s diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 fell to 17.3% YES from 22% yesterday, as traders price in growing skepticism about near-term diplomacy. Why it matters…

Iran refuses US peace talks, dims hopes for Trump meeting by April 30

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Iran has publicly refused to attend peace talks with the U.S., pushing odds on a Trump-led meeting with Iran by April 30 down to 13% YES, a sharp drop from 22% a day ago. The April 30 market lost 9 points on YES odds after Iran’s statement. Traders had bid up the odds on hopes of a potential meeting, only to see that enthusiasm evaporate. With just 12 days left, the market is pessimistic about any breakthrough. Volume on this market is $5,026 in USDC traded daily, with $283 needed…

Trump announces new US-Iran talks, threatens infrastructure strike

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Donald Trump announced new US-Iran talks starting Monday, paired with a threat to strike Iranian infrastructure if no deal is reached. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, sit at 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday. Traders reacted quickly to Trump’s statement across multiple markets. The April 22 permanent peace deal market dropped sharply, while the April 30 market is at 45.5%, down from 61% a day ago. The May 31 probability is at 63.5%, which suggests traders expect a resolution is more likely by…

Trump feared hostage crisis after US jet downed in Iran, sidelined from talks

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Trump feared a hostage crisis after a US jet was downed in Iran, reportedly lashing out and being sidelined from key discussions. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 have dropped to 13.5% YES, down from 40% just 24 hours ago. Traders moved quickly on the report of Trump’s behavior, reading it as a destabilizing factor in ongoing diplomacy. The April 22 peace deal market dropped 5 points at 5:56 PM. With four days left until resolution, the market is pricing in a slim chance of…

Trump engages in conflict influenced by Netanyahu, US naval blockade active

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MSNBC reports Trump has engaged in conflict influenced by Netanyahu, with U.S. Central Command active in the Arabian Sea. The odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 are currently at ? YES. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is enforcing a naval blockade in the region, and these operations have pushed the perceived likelihood of further military action higher. The U.S. invasion of Iran market reflects this, though no ground deployment has occurred yet. The Trump announces end of military operations against Iran market for April 21…