Tag: trump

Rep. McBride speculates Tulsi Gabbard may exit Trump Cabinet despite denial

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Rep. Sarah McBride said Tulsi Gabbard might be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet, and the Next to Leave Trump Cabinet market has moved on the claim, though the White House dismissed it. Market reaction McBride’s comments introduce fresh speculation around Gabbard’s future even after the White House denial. The market for Next to Leave Trump Cabinet could see a 15% increase in YES shares, driven by McBride’s direct mention of Gabbard. The price action so far is speculative rather than tied to any confirmed developments. Why it matters…

Top Memecoin Holders Expected to Attend Trump Luncheon

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In a repeat of 2025, top holders of US President Donald Trump’s memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), will gather for a private event that many critics have described as selling access to the presidency. On Saturday, Trump and up to 297 of his memecoin holders will meet at the president’s Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. According to the project behind the memecoin, attendees will include stablecoin issuer Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, cryptocurrency exchange Upbit founder and CEO ChiHyung Song, Bitcoin (BTC) advocate Anthony Pompliano, Anchorage Digital co-founder and CEO Nathan McCauley and…

Trump swaps negotiating team, excludes Vance, Iran peace deal odds drop

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Trump replaced his negotiating team, excluding Vance, who Iran explicitly requested. The odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 are at 11% YES, down from 61% a week ago. The decision to send Witkoff and Kushner, whom Iran deems ineffective, signals a lack of serious engagement. The April 30 peace deal market dropped to 11% as traders priced in the swap. The May 31 market sits at 38%, while June 30 holds at 55%, meaning traders expect any deal to take months, not weeks. The diplomatic meetings…

Trump to Appear at His Memecoin Event on Saturday

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The White House has reportedly confirmed that US President Donald Trump will attend the exclusive event for top TRUMP memecoin holders at his Florida residence on Saturday, after questions were raised earlier this month over whether he would attend. Reuters reported on Friday that the White House confirmed Trump would deliver a keynote address at the gala luncheon organized by the company behind his Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin. The gala is set to take place at Mar-a-Lago. It will be open to the top 297 holders of the TRUMP token,…

Trump hints at easing Iran tensions, oil markets remain skeptical

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Trump’s remarks hint at easing tensions with Iran, affecting oil markets. Crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 is at 3.6% YES, showing little change over the past week. The market’s muted reaction reflects skepticism about rapid de-escalation. Trump’s comments did momentarily move the diplomatic meeting market, where odds of no meeting by June 30 sit at 14.2% YES, up from 8% yesterday. The low-cost move ($114 to shift odds by 5 points) suggests traders aren’t willing to overcommit. The market for WTI crude hitting $160 in April…

Iran seizes ships in Hormuz, Trump demands talks within days

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Iran has seized ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump has given Tehran days to return to talks. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 sits at 74% YES, down from 82% yesterday. The seizure has moved both the US-Iran ceasefire end market and Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement market. Ceasefire odds are expected to rise as tensions increase, while the likelihood of lifting the blockade has fallen. The Hormuz blockade market dropped 8 points in a single day. Trading volume for…

Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, shifts focus to diplomacy

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Trump’s indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire has moved prediction markets sharply. The odds for a formal ceasefire by April 30 sit at 15% YES, down from 32% just 24 hours ago. The extension, contingent on Iran’s peace proposal, raises expectations for talks in Islamabad and shifts the US-Iran ceasefire market toward diplomatic outcomes. Odds in the US forces entering Iran market are expected to fall as military action becomes less likely. The sharpest move was a 5-point spike in the ceasefire market at 6:59 PM, when it briefly hit…

Rep. Lieu suggests Kash Patel next in Trump Cabinet shakeup by June 30

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Rep. Ted Lieu says FBI Director Kash Patel is “next” for a Trump Cabinet shakeup. The Patel out by June 30 market is at 61% YES, up from 30% a week ago. Market reaction Kash Patel out by June 30 climbed from 30% to 61% over seven days. The April 30 market sits at 19%, meaning traders expect action after that short-term window rather than before it. The December 31 market is at 82% YES, pricing in a high probability of Patel’s eventual departure. The gap between the April 30…

Trump claims Iranian nuclear sites obliterated, uranium extraction doubted

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Trump’s post claiming destruction of Iranian nuclear sites has pushed the probability of the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 to 15%, with traders skeptical about feasibility under current conditions. Market reaction The market for US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 has cooled. Trump’s claim of “obliteration” implies less accessible uranium for the US, consistent with prior assessments of severe damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Traders doubt the feasibility of extracting significant nuclear material from sites described as destroyed. Why it matters No rebuilding of enrichment…