Tag: trump

Trump calls for US to open Strait of Hormuz amid Iran ‘collapse’ claim

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Trump claims Iran is in a “State of Collapse” and calls for the US to open the Strait of Hormuz. Odds for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 are at 0.5% YES, down from 2% a day ago. Trump’s remark points toward easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been a flashpoint following recent US-Israeli airstrikes. The oil all-time high market prices the likelihood of crude surpassing $120/barrel by April 30 well below where it was 24 hours ago. Only 6 days remain until resolution.…

Trump Softens His Stance on Prediction Markets

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US President Donald Trump has softened his stance on prediction markets just days after he bemoaned the surging interest and popularity of the betting platforms. “I don’t know. I know some people who are very smart. They like it,” Trump told reporters in Florida on Saturday after he was asked about his earlier comments, in which he said he didn’t support prediction markets. “They disagree, but they like it.” “A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the…

Trump doubts Iran deal as uranium enrichment talks stall

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Trump expressed skepticism over Iran negotiations while mediators remain optimistic about the next few days. The market for Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 has collapsed from 50% a week ago to 0.9% YES. Market reaction Traders are clearly unconvinced by the mediators’ optimistic tone. The Iran uranium enrichment agreement odds cratered from 6% just 24 hours ago. A 15% expected move reflects skepticism, given Trump’s doubt and the ongoing deadlock over nuclear limits and the Hormuz blockade. Why it matters In the Iran peace deals market, the outlook…

Trump calls attacker ‘sick lone wolf’ in ’60 Minutes’ interview

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Trump called his would-be attacker a “sick lone wolf” during a “60 Minutes” interview, and King Charles III’s visit remains on track. The market on whether Trump will publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30 sits at 100% YES. ## Market reaction The Trump-Carlson insult market is priced at 100% YES, meaning traders see no remaining uncertainty. The “60 Minutes” interview didn’t move the number because there was nowhere for it to go. At 100%, the market already prices in Trump’s pattern of public confrontation, particularly during televised appearances. ##…

Assassination attempt at dinner raises Trump Cabinet security concerns

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A lone-actor assassination attempt targeting President Trump and his administration at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner has pushed traders to reassess Cabinet stability. The market for “next to leave Trump Cabinet” faces a potential 15% increase in YES odds as fears grow over personal safety of Cabinet members. Market reaction The next to leave Trump Cabinet market is currently inactive, but odds could shift sharply if any Cabinet members express unease or resign over personal safety. Traders are pricing in a potential 15% YES odds increase tied directly to security…

Trump claims division in Iran’s leadership, markets await decisive action

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Trump’s claim of division within Iran’s leadership could be a strategic maneuver. Reza Pahlavi’s entry into Iran by June 30 sits at 6.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday. Market reaction The move was modest. The June 30 market gained 0.5 points, while the December 31 market rose to 15.5% YES from 14% a day prior. The term structure shows a 9-point spread between the June 30 and December 31 contracts, suggesting traders expect any catalyst to arrive in the second half of the year. Why it matters The “Fall of…

Trump confirms calls with Putin, Zelensky on Ukraine de-escalation efforts

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Trump confirmed calls with both Putin and Zelensky, pointing to potential U.S.-mediated de-escalation efforts. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, sit at 4% YES, unchanged from yesterday. Market reaction The May 31 ceasefire market remains flat despite the calls. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete developments beyond phone conversations, such as a trilateral summit or a formal ceasefire announcement. The long-term ceasefire outlook for 2027 could see movement if mediation efforts produce something tangible, but the immediate reaction is muted. Why it matters The market…

Trump cancels Kushner, Witkoff Pakistan trip for Iran peace talks

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Trump called off Kushner and Witkoff’s planned Pakistan visit for Iran peace talks. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market is at 4% YES, down from 10% 24 hours ago. The cancellation has pushed odds down across related markets. The May 31 market dropped to 26% YES from 38% a day earlier. The June 30 market is at 44%, down from 57% yesterday. The 22-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 contracts suggests traders expect a possible catalyst in that window. Volume hit $854,504 in USDC…

US Treasury warns IRGC funneling funds abroad, Trump favors phone diplomacy

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US Treasury Secretary claims the IRGC is funneling funds abroad while Trump dismisses in-person mediation trips to Pakistan. The possibility of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 is at 14% YES. Trump’s preference for phone diplomacy makes physical meetings less likely, pushing odds for no meeting by June 30 up from 9% a day ago. The sub-market for diplomatic meetings has $6,833 in daily USDC volume and a 4-point drop recently. The market for a US invasion of Iran remains inactive, even with Treasury’s financial warnings. The IRGC’s financial…

Rep. McBride speculates Tulsi Gabbard may exit Trump Cabinet despite denial

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Rep. Sarah McBride said Tulsi Gabbard might be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet, and the Next to Leave Trump Cabinet market has moved on the claim, though the White House dismissed it. Market reaction McBride’s comments introduce fresh speculation around Gabbard’s future even after the White House denial. The market for Next to Leave Trump Cabinet could see a 15% increase in YES shares, driven by McBride’s direct mention of Gabbard. The price action so far is speculative rather than tied to any confirmed developments. Why it matters…