Tag: trump

CENTCOM to brief Trump on unprecedented military options against Iran

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CENTCOM is set to brief Trump on what are being described as unprecedented military options against Iran. The Polymarket contract for military actions against Iran by April 30 sits at 0.2% YES. The briefing is happening during a fragile ceasefire and ongoing regional tensions. The military actions against Iran market prices the probability at 0.2% YES, but the briefing could shift sentiment if the options discussed represent a real departure from prior planning. The market is extremely thin: only $23 in USDC traded in the past 24 hours, and just…

Trump reviews US troop levels in Germany amid Iran standoff

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Donald Trump announced a review of US troop levels in Germany, adding a new variable to the US-Iran standoff. The odds for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at 7.5% YES. Market reaction The review signals a possible shift in US military posture that could affect markets tied to the Iran conflict. On the US declaration of war on Iran by December 31, 2026 contract, odds have dipped slightly from 8% yesterday, a minor move in trader sentiment. The April 30 market is flat…

Netanyahu to discuss Iran proposal with Trump after rejection

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Israel’s Channel 12 reports Netanyahu will soon talk to Trump after his rejection of an Iranian proposal. The odds of Iran agreeing to surrender its uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, are at 0.5% YES, down from 11% a week ago. The market for a uranium surrender by June 30, 2026 is at 22.5% YES, up slightly from 22% yesterday but down from 34% a week ago. The December 31, 2026 contract sits at 39.5% YES. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of a short-term deal and betting on…

Oil surges back above $100 as Trump presses Iran to reopen Hormuz

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Oil prices surged Wednesday as President Donald Trump warned Iran to reach a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy markets locked on the risk of a prolonged supply shock. WTI crude climbed back above $100, trading near $105 at press time and up more than 6% on the day, while Brent crude rose roughly 5% and traded above $110, as traders priced in the risk of extended disruptions tied to the US Iran conflict. Trump issued a new warning to Tehran early Wednesday, telling the regime to…

Pakistan PM Sharif mediates US-Iran peace amid Trump visit speculation

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Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that efforts to achieve peace and a ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict are ongoing, while the market on a Trump visit to Pakistan by May 31 sits at 7.5% YES, up slightly from 7% yesterday. Sharif’s comments have moved the military action against Iran market, with traders reading his mediation efforts as a step away from conflict. The Trump-Pakistan visit market recorded a 42-point spike at 11:40 AM, pointing to speculative interest in a possible diplomatic breakthrough. The Trump visit market trades $82 in…

Trump warns Iran amid Hegseth’s Capitol Hill testimony

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President Trump told Iran to “get smart soon” while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced questioning on Capitol Hill, putting pressure on the U.S. invasion of Iran market tracking whether the U.S. invades by December 31, 2026. Market reaction Trump’s language is the kind of input that tends to push the U.S. invasion of Iran market higher, though specific odds figures aren’t available for this contract. The U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting market saw no movement, with nothing new on the diplomatic front. The Iran uranium stockpile surrender market is also flat, as…

FCC orders review of Disney’s ABC licenses after Trump demands Kimmel firing

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Trump-appointed FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has ordered an early review of licenses for eight Disney-owned ABC stations, following demands from President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump that ABC fire Jimmy Kimmel after his April 23 joke about Melania. The market for Kimmel being fired or resigning by May 31 is at 5.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday. Market reaction The price dropped 43 points in the past 24 hours as traders who initially bid up the contract reversed course. The largest single-candle move went from 50% to 8%. Order…

Trump rejects Tehran’s plea, calls Iran in ‘state of collapse’

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Trump rejected Tehran’s plea to end the naval blockade and called Iran a country in a “state of collapse,” pushing odds on a US-Iran ceasefire extension by April 22 down to 0.2% YES, a collapse from 28% just a week ago. Market reaction The rejection hit diplomatic progress odds hard. Traders now expect the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by April 15 to drop by roughly 15%. Trump’s hardline stance also nudged invasion odds upward; while concrete numbers weren’t available, the market is expected to price in a 10% increase…

James Comey indicted for threats against Trump via Instagram post

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James Comey has been indicted on federal charges related to a 2025 Instagram post, and the odds of Comey being arrested by May 15 are at 87.0% YES. Market reaction The indictment charges Comey with making threats against Donald Trump via a cryptic Instagram post. Arrest-by-April-29 odds sit at just 11.0% YES, while the May 15 contract trades at 87.0% YES. Traders clearly don’t expect an arrest in the next few days but are pricing one in before mid-May. The term structure shows a 76-point jump from April 29 to…

Trump calls for Jimmy Kimmel’s firing; FCC reviews Disney licenses

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President Trump and Melania Trump have called for comedian Jimmy Kimmel to be fired from ABC. The market for Kimmel’s firing or resignation by May 31 is at 5.5% YES, down from 8% twenty-four hours ago. The controversy stems from Kimmel’s recent monologue joking about Melania Trump. The FCC has reportedly begun reviewing Disney’s broadcast licenses, adding a separate pressure track. Despite both developments, odds have moved downward, not up. Market reaction The May 31 market saw a 43-point drop earlier, and with 32 days left until resolution, it sits…