Iran’s parliament is pushing a plan for rial-based transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint. The odds of 80 ships transiting the Strait by April 30 sit at
The ships transit market has dropped sharply. A week ago, the probability was at 28%. Traders appear to believe these new economic measures will deter shipping operators, making it unlikely for 80 ships to transit in a single day by the end of April.
The odds for traffic normalization in the Strait show no significant improvement. The market has been quiet, with traders pricing in continued disruption from Iran’s fee plan through April 30.
This market is thin, with actual USDC traded at $2,238/day, and $946 needed to move the price 5 points. The largest move was a modest 2-point spike at 10:22 AM, meaning even small orders can shift the price meaningfully.
At 5¢, buying YES pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 20x return. But for that bet to pay off, you’d need to believe that Iran will backtrack or that international pressure will force a compromise within the week.
Watch for formal announcements from the IRGC or Iran’s Foreign Ministry on implementation of these fees. The specifics will clarify how committed Iran is to this plan and could cause further market movement.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
