Day: April 19, 2026

Trump engages in conflict influenced by Netanyahu, US naval blockade active

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MSNBC reports Trump has engaged in conflict influenced by Netanyahu, with U.S. Central Command active in the Arabian Sea. The odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 are currently at ? YES. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is enforcing a naval blockade in the region, and these operations have pushed the perceived likelihood of further military action higher. The U.S. invasion of Iran market reflects this, though no ground deployment has occurred yet. The Trump announces end of military operations against Iran market for April 21…

Iran orders Indian ship to halt in Strait of Hormuz escalation

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Iran’s military ordered an Indian vessel to halt its passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The market on whether fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by April 19 sits at 0.4% YES with just one day left. Market reaction Iran’s order to an Indian ship represents a moderate escalation in its control over the strait. The fewer than 10 ships transit market remains at 0.4% YES, with prices steady over the last 24 hours. Why it matters Daily USDC volume is just $14, and the cost to…

Warren Accuses SEC’s Paul Atkins of Misleading Congress

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US Senator Elizabeth Warren has accused Paul Atkins, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, of possibly lying to Congress about the agency’s enforcement numbers. Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, said in a letter to Atkins dated Wednesday that the SEC’s enforcement data for fiscal year 2025, released on April 7, raised “significant concerns” about his answers at a Feb. 12 congressional hearing. “At the hearing, I specifically asked you to comment on publicly available data highlighting a decline in SEC enforcement activity,” Warren said.…

US to seize Iranian crude tankers, move missile systems to Jordan

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The U.S. is preparing to seize Iranian crude tankers globally and reposition missile systems to Jordan. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for sanction relief in April sits at 0% YES. The Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April market has dropped on the news. These hawkish actions point away from any conciliatory move by Trump. Meanwhile, odds for a Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30 have climbed to 6% YES, up from 4% yesterday. The 2-point jump in Gulf State action odds…