Day: April 19, 2026

Kelp Exploit Spread ‘Contagion’ Throughout DeFi Ecosystem: Crypto Execs

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The exploit of the Kelp liquid restaking protocol shows how non-isolated lending and integrations in decentralized finance (DeFi) can cause broader ecosystem contagion, according to crypto industry executives and blockchain security firms. Non-isolated lending on DeFi platforms, including earlier versions of the Aave lending protocol, exposes users to risks from all the various tokens used as collateral on the platforms, according to Michael Egorov, founder of the Curve Finance DeFi protocol. Kelp was the target of a cyber attack on Saturday, causing the platform to pause smart contracts for its…

Iran blockade of Strait of Hormuz continues amid no US-Iran talks scheduled

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Shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf persist with no US-Iran diplomatic meeting scheduled. The market for a qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, is at 3.7% YES, up from 2% a day ago. The disruption comes from the ongoing Iran War and Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The diplomatic meeting market reflects deep skepticism about near-term talks. The marginal rise in odds actually suggests mounting pessimism (this is a “no meeting” contract). The order book is thin: $455 would move the price 5 points, leaving it…

Iran, US expected to announce symbolic ceasefire extension Wednesday

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Iranians expect a joint symbolic announcement on Wednesday to extend the ceasefire. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 41.5% YES, down from 59% yesterday. Market reaction The market for Trump announcing the end of military operations is reacting to potential de-escalation. With 12 days left, traders are pricing a ceasefire extension as a positive signal, though no formal commitment exists. The price to move the market 5 points is $1,566, indicating moderate liquidity. WTI Crude Oil markets, such as WTI hitting $160 in April, sit at 1.4%…

Trump’s comments, Vance’s absence impact US-Iran peace deal prospects

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Trump’s vague comments and JD Vance’s absence from Islamabad talks have pushed the odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22 down to 22.5%, a sharp fall from 40% just 24 hours ago. The April 22 peace deal market dropped to 22.5% after Trump’s messaging and reported security concerns. The April 30 market fell to 42.5% from 61%. Longer-dated contracts held up somewhat better: the June 30 market sits at 70.5%, though it also dropped from 81%. The sub-markets show a clear expected catalyst window in late April…

Bitcoin Halts Gains as US-Iran War, Hormuz Closure Make a Comeback

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Bitcoin foreshadows fresh market mayhem as it appears that the US-Iran war has returned, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil route. Bitcoin (BTC) sought to protect $75,000 into Sunday’s weekly close as crypto surfed fresh uncertainty over the US-Iran war. Key points: Bitcoin price action sinks from ten-week highs amid fears that the US-Iran war has returned in full force. Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, bringing back the risk of an oil-price surge. BTC price action faces ongoing resistance at a 21-week trend line into the…

Trump announces new US-Iran talks, threatens infrastructure strike

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Donald Trump announced new US-Iran talks starting Monday, paired with a threat to strike Iranian infrastructure if no deal is reached. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, sit at 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday. Traders reacted quickly to Trump’s statement across multiple markets. The April 22 permanent peace deal market dropped sharply, while the April 30 market is at 45.5%, down from 61% a day ago. The May 31 probability is at 63.5%, which suggests traders expect a resolution is more likely by…

Iranian gunboats deter shipping in Strait of Hormuz ahead of ceasefire expiry

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Iranian gunboats and IRGC radio warnings have deterred commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 to 0.4% YES, up from 0% yesterday. The market for fewer than 10 ships by April 19 saw a modest 2-point spike early this morning but hasn’t moved much beyond that. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 has dropped from 51% to 22.5% YES over the past 24 hours, a far sharper reaction. The April 19 market trades…

Aluminum Giant Alcoa to Sell Dormant Smelter to Bitcoin Miner NYDIG: Report

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US aluminium giant Alcoa is reportedly nearing a deal to offload its long-idle Massena East smelter in upstate New York to Bitcoin mining firm New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG). The company is in advanced discussions and expects the transaction to close “in the middle part of this year,” CEO Bill Oplinger told Bloomberg on Friday. The site, located along the St. Lawrence River, has been inactive since 2014 after Alcoa shut it down amid rising energy costs and global competition. Built for 24/7 heavy industrial operations, aluminum smelters come…

Iran replenishes missile, drone platforms, signaling military readiness

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The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are replenishing missile and drone launch platforms faster than before, a sign of increased military readiness. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market sits at 4% YES, down from 4.5% a day ago. Traders appear to read the Iranian military buildup as a signal of regime stability, making Pahlavi’s return less likely in the near term. The December 31 market stands at 13.5% YES, showing a similar read. The market for Iran carrying out military action against countries by April 30 remains at 100%…

Iran accused of public assassination plans amid US-Israeli conflict tensions

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President Pezeshkian alleges Iran publicly states assassination plans while others label it a terrorist state. The Iranian regime falling by May 31 remains at 3.0% YES. Pezeshkian’s statement amid the ongoing US-Israeli conflict adds to tensions. The fall of the Iranian regime by May 31 market holds at 3.0% YES. The market for Iran’s leadership status by the end of 2026 has no reported odds yet but could see movement if assassination claims prove credible. Pezeshkian’s comments are consistent with previous threats and point to a volatile environment. If further…