Day: April 18, 2026

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, complicating US-Iran deal talks

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Pakistan says a US-Iran deal is imminent, but Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure complicates talks. The ceasefire market sits at 8% YES for an extension by April 21, up from 7% a week ago. Pakistan is sending optimistic signals, but Iran’s recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has traders cautious. The April 21 ceasefire market remains low at 8%, showing skepticism about a quick resolution. The April 30 market has climbed to 46.5% YES from 17% last week. The term structure shows traders expect action after April 21, with…

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract $1B in Weekly Inflows as Risk Appetite Returns

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Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows over the past week, marking their strongest performance in more than three months as market sentiment shifts toward risk assets. Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs attracted $996 muillion in total net inflows last week, the highest weekly intake since early January, when inflows reached about $1.4 billion. Friday saw $663.9 million in inflows, the strongest single-day performance of the week. Earlier gains included $411.5 million on Tuesday and $186 million on Wednesday, followed by…

Trump claims Iran deal near despite uranium enrichment disputes

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President Trump claims a deal with Iran is near, though uranium enrichment disagreements persist. The market for Iran agreeing to end enrichment by April 30 is at 39.2% YES, up from 35% yesterday. Traders see diplomatic momentum, but Tehran’s pushback on US claims keeps the odds low. The April 21 ceasefire extension sits at 8%, despite Trump’s optimism. The April 30 peace deal is at 46.5% YES, up from 17% a week ago. The Iran enrichment market trades $23,824 daily in real USDC, with just $599 needed to move odds…

SEC Charges Donald Basile in $16M Crypto Fraud Over “Insured” Token

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The US Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a lawsuit against crypto executive Donald Basile, accusing him and two companies he controlled of raising about $16 million from investors through false claims tied to a so-called “insured” crypto token known as Bitcoin Latinum. In a complaint filed Friday in the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York, the SEC alleged that Basile ran the scheme between March and December 2021 through Monsoon Blockchain Corp. and GIBF GP Inc., offering investors Simple Agreements for Future Tokens (SAFTs) that…

Ukraine strikes Russia’s Port of Vysotsk, widening energy disruption campaign

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Ukraine struck Russia’s Port of Vysotsk, a Baltic Sea oil terminal, extending its campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026, are at 5.9% YES, down slightly from 6% yesterday. Market reaction The ceasefire market is thin, with volume at $1,928 in USDC and a cost of $3,308 to move the price 5 points. Even modest trades could cause noticeable shifts in odds. The slight downward move from 6% to 5.9% tracks with the escalation at Vysotsk, following Ukraine’s recent strikes on Ust-Luga…

Strait of Hormuz reopens, easing oil supply concerns amid US-Iran tensions

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The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns about prolonged supply disruption, putting downward pressure on the Polymarket contract for crude oil reaching $90 by June 30. Market reaction The strait’s reopening points to de-escalation in the US-Iran-Israel conflict, which had previously pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel. The market forecasting crude oil at $90 by June 30 now faces downward pressure as traders reassess the risk of extended disruption. Activity had spiked during the initial closure but is cooling as the supply threat recedes. Why it…

US destroyers intercept Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz

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Washington Post reports U.S. destroyers have forced three Iranian tankers to turn back and are pursuing two others. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 62.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday. Market reaction The April 30 market dropped 9.5 points in 24 hours following the interception reports. The May 31 market remains steady at 86% YES, which implies traders expect the blockade to end sometime between early May and late May, likely tied to diplomatic or military developments rather than a near-term resolution. Why it…

Circle Launches USDC Bridge For Native Cross-Chain Transfers

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Stablecoin issuer Circle has launched USDC Bridge, a new user interface built on top of the Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) that seeks to simplify native cross-chain transfers of the USDC stablecoin. On Friday, Circle’s USDC X account said the bridge allows users to move the USDC (USDC) stablecoin in a “predictable, transparent way,” citing a native burn-and-mint transfer mechanism and no bridge complexities. Gas fees will be handled automatically, fees will be shown upfront, and live status updates will be provided throughout the transfer, Circle added. Source: Circle The USDC…

BlackRock buys $1.3B in Bitcoin over 8 days amid geopolitical tensions

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BlackRock has accumulated $1.34 billion in Bitcoin over the last eight days, including a $284 million purchase yesterday. Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 17 sits at 99.9% YES, with institutional demand driven partly by hedging against geopolitical instability. The April 17 market shows a 99.9% YES probability of Bitcoin staying above $62,000, with similar levels for April 18. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching between $78,000 and $80,000 by April 15 hit 100% YES, up from 20% just a week ago. Actual USDC traded for April 18 markets is $89,134, with…

Trump claims ‘way ahead of schedule’ on Operation Epic Fury in Iran

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Trump’s update on Operation Epic Fury claims swift progress. Odds for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 sit at 19.5% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago. The market didn’t move despite Trump’s assertion of being ahead of schedule. Obtaining enriched uranium remains a long-shot bet at 19.5% YES. The sub-market for May 31 has shown minimal historical fluctuation, with a 2-point spike as the largest recent movement. There are 45 days until resolution, so any confirmed progress could shift these odds sharply. The US-Iran ceasefire announcement odds…