Tag: Iran

Gulf countries push for normal relations with Iran

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Gulf states are moving to normalize relations with Iran amid the ongoing 2026 conflict. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago. The market shows interest in diplomacy, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries acting as intermediaries. The April 30 ceasefire market jumped to 38% YES, indicating traders expect progress soon. The biggest increase is between April 15 and April 30, with a 20-point rise, suggesting a potential diplomatic catalyst. Ceasefire markets trade $1.37M in USDC…

Trump’s Iran speech signals escalation, dims ceasefire odds

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Trump’s latest speech hints at continued military escalation in Iran, reducing the odds of a ceasefire by April 7 to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago. Traders reacted to Trump’s rhetoric of intensified strikes, causing a 2-point drop in the April 7 ceasefire market at 8:13 AM. The April 15 market also declined to 18% YES, while the April 30 ceasefire odds slightly increased to 38% YES, likely anticipating a potential catalyst in mid-April. The trading landscape shows $205,330 in USDC volume for the April…

Iran attacks gulf aluminum sites, escalating US-linked conflict

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Iran’s Revolutionary Guards hit steel and aluminum sites in Bahrain and the UAE tied to the US, escalating tensions. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday. The attack shifts focus from military to economic targets, increasing pressure. The market for US forces entering Iran by April 30 sits at 52% YES, down from 57% a day ago, showing uncertainty about a US military response. The December 31 market stands at 64% YES, indicating expectations of prolonged conflict. In the…

Iran demands reparations, complicating ceasefire prospects

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Iran insists on ending the war with reparations, while Hezbollah continues its attacks. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% from 26% last week. Iran’s demands and Hezbollah’s actions are hitting market expectations. The April 7 ceasefire market is at 8%, showing doubt about immediate peace. The April 15 market sits at 18%, and the April 30 market at 38%, indicating traders see a possible shift later this month. Trading volume is strong, with $1.37M in USDC traded across all sub-markets. The April 7 market…

Iran attacks U.S. base in jordan amid escalating conflict

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Iranian drones struck the U.S.-operated Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, escalating the conflict. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago. Traders are pessimistic about a quick resolution. The April 7 ceasefire market is at 8.5% YES. The April 15 market fell to 18.5% YES, from 20%. The April 30 market holds at 38.5% YES, with a 4-point spike indicating hope for a late April catalyst. The likelihood of US forces entering Iran has increased. The…

Iran accuses US of conflict, Trump hints at deal

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Iran blames the US for escalating tensions, while Trump suggests Iran might be open to a deal. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago. Traders remain cautious despite Trump’s comments. The April 7 market fell 2 points to 8%. The April 30 market rose 4 points to 38%. The largest shift in odds is between April 15 and April 30, indicating traders expect a potential trigger during that period. With $1,365,780 in USDC traded in…

Trump pushes war with Iran, drops ceasefire odds

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President Trump has suggested going to war with Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal. This has dropped the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 8% YES, down from 10% a day ago. The ceasefire market reacted strongly. The April 15 market fell to 18% from 20%, while the April 30 market rose slightly to 38.5% after a brief spike. The largest shift is a 20-point jump between April 15 and April 30, suggesting traders expect key events around mid-April. Meanwhile, the US forces entering Iran market…

Trump claims Iran war goals near, ceasefire odds drop

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President Trump stated that the war in Iran is crucial to U.S. security and suggested military goals are close to being met. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have fallen to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday. Ceasefire odds have dropped sharply following Trump’s remarks. The April 7 market is at 8% YES, a steep decline from 26% a week ago. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, down from 34% last week, while April 30 saw a slight rise to 38%. The most significant change…

Trump Threatens to Hit Iran Extremely Hard in the Coming Weeks

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Crude oil rose to over $100 a barrel while Bitcoin fell 2% after a national address by US President Donald Trump on the conflict in Iran, where he vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next few weeks.  Speaking at the White House on Wednesday during an address to the nation, Trump said the US military is “very close” to finishing “Operation Epic Fury,” claiming to have wiped out Iran’s nuclear and naval capabilities while also significantly hampering its drones, missiles and weapon factories. “I can say tonight that…

Joe kent claims US wants quick end to Iran conflict, Israel disagrees

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Joe Kent’s comments suggest the US seeks a swift resolution to the Iran conflict. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES from 10% in the last 24 hours. Kent’s remarks indicate internal US disagreement on the war’s duration, hinting at a diplomatic shift. The April 30 ceasefire market rose 2 points to 38% YES, suggesting traders expect changes in late April. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, down from 20% yesterday. The May 31 market stands at 56% YES, indicating a longer…