Tag: Iran

US odds for ground forces entering Iran by April 30 jump to 86%

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The U.S. confirmed a rescue operation after Iran claimed to have downed a U.S. fighter jet. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 jumped to 85.5% YES, up from 60% the previous day. Traders reacted quickly. The April 30 market surged 25.5 points, reflecting increased expectations of U.S. ground involvement. The December 31 market also rose, now at 87.5% YES, up from 70%. Daily trading volume for these markets hit $4.26M in USDC. The order book depth is significant, with $998K needed to move the April 30 price…

Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 66% amid military activity

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U.S. helicopters are refueling mid-air over Iran during a search and rescue operation. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 are at 66% YES, up from 61% a day ago. This refueling shows increased military activity in hostile airspace. The April 30 market rose 5.5 points, indicating traders see a higher chance of ground forces entering Iran within 27 days. The December 31 market also increased, now at 76% YES, suggesting expectations of prolonged engagement. Trading volume is $1.9M in USDC, with strong liquidity. It takes $248K to…

Iran boosts defenses as US troop deployment raises odds for ground operations

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Iran is boosting its defenses and targeting Gulf interests as US troops arrive in the Middle East. Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 are at 65.5% YES, up from 61% a day ago. Traders are responding to the deployment of US forces like the 82nd Airborne, indicating potential ground operations in Iran. The April 30 market is at 66% YES, while the December 31 market stands at 76% YES, up from 72% last week. The 10-point difference between April and December suggests traders expect developments soon. The…

US informs Israel of deadlocked Iran negotiations, ceasefire odds plummet

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The U.S. has informed Israel that negotiations with Iran have hit a deadlock. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 2% YES, down from 8% just yesterday. Later markets show sharper declines. The April 15 ceasefire odds fell to 8% YES from 18%. The April 30 market dropped to 24% YES from 40%. The May 31 market now stands at 46% YES, down from 56%. Traders are losing confidence in a quick diplomatic solution. Trading activity shows a decline. The April 7 market trades $49,062 in…

Ceasefire odds drop to 1.8% as Iran continues missile attacks on Israel

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Israel’s missile defenses stopped most Iranian missiles, but Iran continues sporadic attacks. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.8% YES, down from 8% yesterday. Operation Epic Fury, a US-Israel effort targeting Iranian capabilities, has weakened Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles. Despite this, Iran launched missiles at Israel on April 2, showing its ongoing, though diminished, ability to retaliate. The ceasefire market for April 7 is now at 1.8% YES, indicating traders’ doubts about a quick end to hostilities. Odds for April 15 are at 8.5%…

Iran lists Gulf bridge targets after coalition strike, US ceasefire odds plummet

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Iran has released a list of Gulf bridge targets following a coalition strike on the B1 Bridge in Karaj. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 2% YES, down from 8% just a day ago. This escalation has affected several markets. The ceasefire by April 15 now stands at 8% YES, down from 18%. April 30 odds dropped to 24% YES, while May 31 fell to 46% YES. The steepest decline was in the April 15 market, with a 10-point drop indicating traders see early…

Trump’s efforts to end Iran conflict see ceasefire odds drop to 23.5% by April 30

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President Trump is working to end the conflict with Iran and stop nuclear weapons development. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 have fallen to 23.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday. The market shows mixed reactions. Immediate ceasefire odds are low: April 7 is at 1.8% YES, down from 8% a day ago. The April 15 market also dropped to 8.5% from 18%. However, the May 31 market is at 45.5% YES, suggesting traders expect progress in the coming months. $535,634 was traded in the last 24 hours,…

UN security council rejects force resolution; Iran to keep hormuz closed

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The UN Security Council rejected a resolution to use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military confirmed the closure will continue indefinitely. Odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1.9% YES, down from 8% yesterday and 22% last week. Traders are betting against a quick resolution. The April 7 market shows a sharp decline, mirroring increased tensions. The April 15 market is at 8.5% YES, down from 20% a day ago. The April 30 market sits at 24.5% YES, down from 40%. The likelihood…

USS ford prepares to rejoin operations near Iran

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The USS Gerald R. Ford is set to resume operations near Iran, increasing military presence in the region. Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 are at 60% YES, up from 55% yesterday. The Ford’s return suggests a shift in conflict dynamics. The April 30 market rose 5 points, indicating trader anticipation of potential ground operations. The December 31 market also increased to 70% YES, up from 66%, suggesting expectations of longer-term escalation. This market shows significant interest, with $326,401 order book depth needed to move April 30…

Odds of US forces entering Iran by april 30 rise to 63% after trump’s speech

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Following President Trump’s recent address, the probability of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rose to 63% YES, up from 50%. Traders reacted quickly to Trump’s comments on Operation Epic Fury, anticipating ground involvement beyond airstrikes. The April 30 market saw a 10% increase in the past day. The December 31 market remains at 70% YES, while the March 31 market is negligible at 0.1% YES. Trading volume is high, with $2.37M in USDC daily. The April 30 sub-market needs $328K to shift odds 5 points, showing strong institutional…