Tag: Iran

Iran eases transit restrictions for Iraq, but US-Iran ceasefire odds drop

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Iran has eased restrictions for Iraq, allowing unrestricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and reopening borders for trade and pilgrims. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. This move indicates a de-escalation with Iraq, but US-Iran tensions remain high. The market for an April 15 ceasefire sits at 6.5% YES, down from 22% last week, showing little impact on broader ceasefire expectations. The April 30 odds have also fallen to 17.5% from 40%. Despite easing restrictions…

Iran warns of regional chaos for US if tensions escalate, ceasefire odds drop

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Iran has issued a warning to the U.S., threatening regional chaos if tensions continue. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago. Traders are reacting to Iran’s threats by betting against a ceasefire. The April 7 market shows deep skepticism, while April 15 is at 6.5% YES, down from 8%. April 30 odds fell to 17.5% YES after a brief rise. The later markets show ongoing pessimism. Trading volume hit $431,402 in the past 24 hours,…

Telegram Has Been Downloaded Over 50M Times in Iran, Despite Ban: Durov

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The Iranian government’s attempt to block the Telegram messaging application in the country has backfired, as users find ways to circumvent national firewalls and online controls, according to Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov. “Iran banned Telegram years ago,” Durov said on Friday; however, tens of millions of users in the country have managed to access the application via virtual private networks (VPNs) and other similar tools, he added. VPNs route web traffic through servers distributed around the globe to mask the true Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of users and obscure their…

Iran rejects temporary ceasefire, demands permanent war resolution guarantees

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Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire, demanding guarantees for a permanent end to the war. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago and 12% a week ago. Iran’s decision has hit prediction markets hard. The April 7 market is flat at 1%. The April 15 market dropped to 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market fell to 17.5% YES from 24% a day ago and 40% a week ago. Traders are pessimistic about a quick resolution.…

Trump gives Iran 48 hours to negotiate deal as ceasefire odds plummet to 1%

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President Trump has given Iran 48 hours to reach a deal, warning of severe consequences otherwise. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday. Traders are reacting to the ultimatum by lowering immediate ceasefire odds. The April 7 market reflects a slim chance of resolution, trading at 1% YES with just four days left. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 8%, showing little confidence in a quick de-escalation. The April 30 market has dropped to 17.5% YES,…

Iran open to bilateral diplomacy as ceasefire odds remain low: FT

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Iran’s Parliament speaker expressed willingness for bilateral diplomacy with neighbors. The US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% last week. Traders doubt an immediate ceasefire. The April 7 market remains stagnant despite Iran’s diplomatic gesture. April 15 odds are slightly better at 6% YES, but skepticism persists. The real interest is in April 30, with 18% YES, suggesting traders see potential de-escalation as a longer-term possibility. Odds jump from 18% to 36% YES between April 30 and May 31, indicating expectations for a late…

Ceasefire odds drop as Iran faces attacks, April 7 now at 1.1% YES

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Iran’s call for a permanent end to the conflict is marred by new attacks on Khuzestan’s petrochemical sites and Israeli evacuation alerts in southern Lebanon. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday. The likelihood of an early ceasefire is fading as military actions continue. April 7 is now a long shot at 1.1% YES. April 15 stands at 6.5% YES, showing doubt about a quick resolution amid ongoing strikes. The April 30 market, at 17.5% YES, reflects traders’ skepticism about…

Iran threatens to target Zionist embassies amid Operation True Promise 4 footage

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Iran has released footage of Operation True Promise 4 and threatened to target Zionist embassies if attacked. The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at 14% YES, up from 12% yesterday but down from 20% a week ago. The footage and threats highlight Iran’s military capability and leadership stability. The June 30 market shows a slight increase but remains lower than last week. With 88 days left, the significant drop over the week suggests traders are reassessing expectations of regime stability under Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership. Trade…

Iran threatens Zionist embassies amid rising regime fall odds to 13.5% by June 30

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Iran released footage of Operation True Promise 4 and threatened Zionist embassies if attacked. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are at 13.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago. The footage underscores Iran’s missile and drone campaign against Israel and US bases. Under Mojtaba Khamenei, these actions have stabilized regime fall odds. The market for a regime fall by June 30 increased slightly to 13.5% from 12% in the last 24 hours, indicating traders are considering Iran’s threats seriously. The June 30 market remains the…

Trump continues talks despite Iran downing two US jets; ceasefire odds drop to 1.1%

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Trump continues negotiations despite Iran shooting down two US jets. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 1.1% YES, down from 12% last week. Markets show skepticism about Trump’s diplomatic push. The April 7 market holds at 1.1% YES. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, indicating slight optimism. The April 30 market shows more confidence, with odds at 17.5% YES. Traders see little chance of an immediate resolution. A 19-point jump between April 30 and May 31 suggests expectations of a catalyst in May.…