Tag: Iran

Iran War Bets Put Crypto Prediction Markets on the Macro Map

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Prediction markets rapidly repriced the odds of US escalation in the Iran conflict, offering a real-time signal of geopolitical risk for traders. Odds on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi shifted in real time as President Donald Trump paired new threats with signals of possible negotiations on Sunday, while Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 3.5% on Monday. Crypto prediction markets are no longer a sideshow during periods of geopolitical tension, with professional desks increasingly using them to gauge macro risk, according to Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori.  …

US, Iran in talks for potential 45-day ceasefire as market skepticism grows

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The US, Iran, and mediators are in talks for a potential 45-day ceasefire. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% last week. The April 7 market is pessimistic at 1% YES, a drop from 12% a week ago. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 22%. The April 30 market is at 17.5% YES, declining from 40%. A 19-point increase between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders expect a catalyst in early May. Trading volume is at $430,773 in…

Iran reactivates missile bunkers as US forces’ entry odds rise to 86% by April 30

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Iran reactivates missile bunkers as U.S. and Israel increase military support and warnings. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. The market’s reaction to Operation Roaring Lion has been swift. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, reflecting ongoing military actions and lack of diplomatic progress. Meanwhile, the chances of US forces entering Iran by April 30 have risen to 86% YES, up from 62% just 24 hours ago. The ceasefire market shows a notable shift. April 7…

Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86% amid escalating tensions

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Iran has reactivated its missile bunkers as hostilities with the U.S. and Israel continue. The odds of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 have surged to 86% YES, up from 62% just 24 hours ago. The reactivation and ongoing strikes have pushed April 30 odds to 86% YES, with December 31 odds at 90.5% YES. Traders are pricing in a likely ground invasion or significant troop presence before year’s end. The narrow 4-point spread between April and December indicates expectations for imminent action. Ceasefire chances are bleak. April 7…

Ceasefire odds plummet as Iran war escalates, April 7 market at 1% YES

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Explosions in Kuwait and Iranian missile strikes on Haifa continue in the 2026 Iran war. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and Israeli cities have traders bearish on a quick ceasefire. The April 7 market is nearly at zero, reflecting little confidence in an immediate diplomatic solution. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, indicating low chances of peace soon. Market trends show declining short-term optimism. The April 30 market fell from 40%…

Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid market shifts

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The Pentagon’s preparation for limited ground raids inside Iran has pushed the odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 to 86% YES, up from 62% a day ago. Traders are reacting to the shift from airstrikes to ground operations. The April 30 market surged 24.5 points in the last 24 hours. The December 31 market also climbed to 90.5% YES from 72%. The narrowing spread between April and December indicates traders expect imminent action. Markets are trading $5,069,224 in USDC daily. It takes $84,737 to move the April…

Ceasefire odds plummet as Trump threatens Iran, traders eye May for movement

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Trump’s threat of strikes on Iran and Iran’s warning of retaliation have plummeted ceasefire odds. The April 7 ceasefire market sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago. The market’s drop shows traders’ pessimism amid escalating tensions. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, down from 22% a week ago. April 30 odds are at 17.5%, falling from 40% last week. Traders see potential movement after April 30, with odds jumping 19 points by May 31. This suggests a possible catalyst in that period,…

Odds of a US Invasion of Iran Spike After Trump’s Threat of Escalation

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The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media. Despite the surge, the odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, due to a US troop buildup in the region and comments from the Trump administration that the United States was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station. Volume on that prediction was about $3.74 million…

US and Israel ready to strike Iran as ceasefire odds plummet to 1%

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The U.S. and Israel are prepared to strike Iranian targets if negotiations collapse. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago. The April 7 market is nearly inactive, with traders dismissing the possibility of a ceasefire. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, down from 22% last week. The narrow 5-point spread over eight days shows little hope for a diplomatic breakthrough. Further out, the April 30 market at 17.5% YES has dropped from…

US forces’ entry into Iran by April 30 now 86.5% likely after rescue operation

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Israeli elite units rescued an American pilot inside Iran, confirming US special forces operations. The odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 have surged to 86.5% YES, up from 62% just 24 hours ago. The mission has significantly impacted the April 30 and December 31 markets. The April market jumped 24 points in the last day, while the December market rose by 18 points. The April market now sits at 86.5% YES, indicating traders expect more confirmation of US ground operations soon. This isn’t just noise. The April…