Day: April 8, 2026

Iran consolidates control over Strait of Hormuz, sanctions lifted

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The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market has hit 99.6% YES, up from 14% just 24 hours ago, following Iran’s consolidation of control over the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of sanctions. Market reaction The April 15 ceasefire market saw a 24-point spike, moving from 67% to 90% in minutes. The April 30 market now sits at 99.5% YES, up from 36% a week ago. The term structure across later dates shows minimal changes, meaning traders expect resolution before those deadlines matter. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime fall market moved…

SEC Says Some Crypto Enforcement Cases Lacked Investor Benefit

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Some past enforcement actions against cryptocurrency companies lacked clear investor benefit and misinterpreted federal securities laws, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said on Tuesday.  Since the 2022 fiscal year, the SEC brought 95 actions and $2.3 billion in penalties for “book-and-record violations,” it said in a statement about its enforcement results for 2025.  “Together with seven crypto firm registration-related and six ‘definition of a dealer’ cases, these cases identified no direct investor harm from those violations, produced no investor benefit or protection.”  It also reflected a “bias for…

Islamic Resistance in Iraq halts operations amid US-Iran ceasefire announcement

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The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has halted operations for two weeks following a US-Iran ceasefire announcement. The ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 99.6% YES, up from 14% just 24 hours ago. The largest single move came last night: a 24-point surge from 67% to 90% in minutes. The April 15 term is fully priced for a ceasefire, a complete reversal from its prior uncertainty. The April 30 market has moved to 99.5% YES, up from 36% a week ago. Longer-dated markets through June 30 and December 31…

FDIC Proposes Rules For Stablecoin Issuers under GENIUS Act

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The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has proposed new rules to regulate FDIC-supervised stablecoin issuers in accordance with the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, which was signed into law nine months ago. In a statement on Tuesday, the FDIC said its board of directors voted to issue a proposal that would set reserve, redemption, capital, risk management and custody standards for stablecoin issuers and insured depository institutions under its supervision. Source: FDIC The FDIC insures deposits at more than 4,000 financial institutions and supervises…

Trump warns Iran of catastrophe without deal in 12 hours

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President Trump warned that Iran faces a “catastrophe” if it doesn’t accept a deal within 12 hours. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market is at 99.6% YES, up from 14% yesterday. The threat is moving related markets. The ceasefire by April 30 market is at 99.5% YES, up from 36% a week ago. The term structure shows traders expect resolution imminently, with odds converging across timelines. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday, suggesting traders are discounting immediate regime change…

Changpeng Zhao Memoir Details Binance Rise, Prison Sentence, Legal Fallout

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Changpeng “CZ” Zhao became a household name in the cryptocurrency sector after founding Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. Following a series of legal and regulatory challenges that culminated in a prison sentence, Zhao has authored an autobiography recounting his rise — and subsequent fallout. The 364-page manuscript, titled Freedom of Money, presents a first-person account of Zhao’s life and career. The foreword is written by Yi He, a Binance co-founder who has worked with Zhao since 2014. Zhao writes that his story has been shaped by media coverage, court…

US and Iran to hold peace talks in Islamabad this Friday

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US and Iran are set to engage in peace talks in Islamabad this Friday, with the market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 showing odds at 99.6% YES. This is a significant increase from 14% just a day ago. The rise in odds indicates traders’ optimism about the upcoming discussions, which Pakistan is hosting as a neutral party. The market for a ceasefire by April 30 is also optimistic, with odds at 99.5% YES, suggesting a resolution is expected soon. The quick rise in odds across related markets shows…

Bitcoin Reclaims $72K After Trump Announces Iran Ceasefire

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Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday accepted a two-week ceasefire in its war against the US, but emphasized this did not mean an end to the war. The price of Bitcoin pushed past $72,000 for the first time in 20 days after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday, hours before his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or…

Iran War Cuts Local Hashrate but Global Bitcoin Network Holds Firm

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Iran’s hashrate has plummeted over the past quarter amid an ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, though the war itself has not dragged down global hashrate, according to a new report from Hashrate Index. Iran has lost roughly 7 exahashes per second (EH/s) quarter-over-quarter, said Ian Philpot, marketing director at Luxor Technology, in a report published Monday. The country’s hashrate now sits at about 2 EH/s according to the Hashrate Index heatmap. Philpot noted that while the regional conflict clearly impacted Iran, it could have triggered a ripple effect…