Tag: Markets

Prediction Markets Will Scale As Far As Resolution Infrastructure Allows

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Opinion by: David Azubike, lead analyst at Blocksquare Prediction markets are no longer an experimental corner of crypto. Data now shows something durable: a financial category with sustained volume, diversified participation and increasing institutional attention. Prediction markets are emerging as a new “arbitrage arena” for crypto traders. Monthly notional volume in prediction markets scaled to more than $13 billion by late 2025 from less than $100 million in early 2024 as markets diversified across verticals, according to a joint research report from Dune and Keyrock.  Data showing sustained post election…

CFTC issues advisory on prediction markets as event contracts expand

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory on prediction markets, reminding exchanges of their regulatory obligations as event contracts grow rapidly across trading platforms. The guidance outlines requirements under the Commodity Exchange Act for designated contract markets listing event contracts, including product submission rules and core market integrity principles. The division said the advisory aims to support innovation while ensuring exchanges comply with existing regulations. The notice also highlights considerations around sports-related event contracts, one of the fastest-growing areas of prediction market trading. The advisory…

Utah Set to Block Prediction Markets Like Kalshi and Polymarket

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The US state of Utah is set to block prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, escalating a growing dispute between state regulators and federal authorities over how the industry should be regulated. On Wednesday, Utah’s HB243 (Gambling Revisions) bill was sent to the governor’s desk after passing the Utah House on Feb. 10 and clearing the Senate on Feb. 27. The bill defines “proposition betting” as gambling. Proposition bets are wagers on individual events within a game, such as how a specific athlete performs or whether a team…

SEC, CFTC Handshake on Memo to Regulate Markets in Harmony

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Two of the US’s most influential financial regulators have agreed to better coordinate oversight of the financial markets, seeking to put an end to decades of “regulatory turf wars” between them. According to the memorandum of understanding written on Wednesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission and US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it has become a “pivotal time” to regulate in harmony as new technologies, such as crypto, make it more challenging to monitor the markets: “New trading models, digital infrastructure, and onchain, automated systems increasingly blur traditional jurisdictional…

Senator Introduces ‘DEATH BETS’ Act Against War-Linked Prediction Markets

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US Democratic Party Senator Adam Schiff introduced legislation Tuesday that would explicitly bar federally regulated prediction-market platforms from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths. The bill, called the DEATH BETS Act, would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to make those contracts prohibited for entities overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In a statement announcing the bill, Schiff said markets that let traders profit from violent events create incentives for the misuse of classified information, threaten national security and encourage violence. He said prediction…

ECB Launches Appia Project to Shape Tokenized Markets

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The European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday published its Appia roadmap, setting out a long-term plan for building tokenized wholesale financial markets in Europe anchored in central bank money. The roadmap is built around two linked initiatives. Pontes is the Eurosystem’s distributed ledger technology settlement solution, while Appia is the broader strategic framework for developing a future tokenized financial ecosystem. The ECB said Pontes is scheduled to launch in the third quarter of 2026. “With Appia, we are building a road from today’s financial system to tomorrow’s tokenized markets, firmly…

Markets tread water as investors brace for inflation data

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The entire financial market spent Tuesday doing its best impression of a doctor’s waiting room. Everyone sat still, no one made eye contact, and the only real activity was nervous fidgeting over what comes next. US equities barely registered a pulse. The S&P 500 dipped 0.2%, oil prices couldn’t decide whether to surge or collapse, and crypto — somewhat surprisingly — caught a mild bid. Bitcoin edged past $70K, Ethereum held above $2K, and the broader digital asset market drifted higher even as traditional finance stayed frozen in place. What…

Kraken rolls out xChange engine to power tokenized stock markets

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Kraken’s tokenized equities platform xStocks has launched xChange, an onchain trading engine designed to facilitate trading of tokenized stocks across the Ethereum and Solana networks. According to the company, the system supports trading of more than 70 tokenized equities backed 1:1 by underlying shares held in custody, with prices intended to track the corresponding public market stocks. The launch adds new trading infrastructure for tokenized equities, part of the broader tokenized real-world asset market that aims to bring traditional financial instruments such as stocks onto blockchain-based trading systems. Kraken launched…

Oil jumps as Trump Iran warning and weak jobs data rattle markets

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Markets got hit from both sides on Thursday. Geopolitical saber-rattling pushed oil to $88 a barrel, and then a brutal jobs report kicked risk assets while they were already down. Bitcoin dropped 3.7% in 24 hours to around $69K. Ethereum fared worse, sliding 4.2% to slip below the psychologically important $2K level. Solana took the hardest punch among major tokens, falling 5% to roughly $85. The crypto Fear & Greed Index now sits at 18 — deep in “Extreme Fear” territory, barely improved from last week’s 13. The geopolitical trigger…

Oil jitters and macro headwinds weigh on crypto markets as fear index hits extreme lows

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When oil prices sneeze, risk assets catch pneumonia. Crypto is currently reaching for the tissues. Prediction market Polymarket now shows a record 73% probability that US oil prices will breach $90 per barrel this month — a level not seen since October 2023. Bitcoin responded by slipping below $71K, while the broader crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at a grim 18, deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. The numbers tell a painful story Bitcoin dropped 2.6% over the past 24 hours, trading below the $71K mark that bulls had been…