Tag: Markets

Hot inflation and a hot war keep markets on edge

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Two things that markets absolutely hate showed up at the same time this week: sticky inflation and military conflict near the world’s most important oil chokepoint. The result has been predictably ugly across every asset class, with crypto’s Fear and Greed Index plunging to 11 — deep into “Extreme Fear” territory — while the S&P 500 tracks its fourth consecutive weekly decline. The macro picture is getting worse, not better The Federal Reserve revised its 2026 rate cut outlook down to just a single reduction, citing core inflation running at…

Gemini Q4 Revenue Lifts Shares Despite Weaker Crypto Markets

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Shares in crypto exchange Gemini surged after hours as stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results showed revenue growth driven by credit card adoption and a reworked fee structure. Gemini reported on Thursday that its Q4 revenues rose 39% from the year-ago quarter to $60.3 million, reportedly beating analyst expectations of $51.7 million. It reported a net loss of $140.8 million for Q4, deepening from its $27 million loss from a year ago. Gemini posted a total 2025 loss of $585 million, ahead of its total 2024 losses of $156.6 million. Gemini co-founders Cameron…

Execution Quality Is The Missing Metric In Bitcoin And Ethereum Markets

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Opinion by: Arthur Azizov, founder of B2 Ventures Transaction cost analysis (TCA) has long been an important tool in equity trading. With this instrument, traders can see the hidden costs that a transaction carries and minimize the difference between the expected and the actual price. As crypto matures, it begins to resemble traditional financial markets and functions like other tradable instruments. Crypto transactions also come with costs: fees that investors pay every time they buy or sell crypto. Yet there is one thing that is clearly not keeping pace with…

Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin Will Drop Below $55K in 2026

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Bitcoin (BTC) may go as low as $55,000 in 2026 as the market lacks bullish catalysts amid macroeconomic uncertainties.  Key takeaways: BTC price has a 65%-71% chance of dropping below $55,000 before Dec. 31, according to prediction markets. Bettors don’t expect Strategy to sell its BTC holdings in 2026.  Whale selling and negative ETFs flows add to Bitcoin’s sell-side pressure.  Prediction markets see BTC bear market continuing The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to resume its downtrend throughout 2026, with targets as low as $40,000.  Related:…

Crypto Fear & Greed Index Rises as $2B in Liquidity Enters Markets

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The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained at 26 on Wednesday, after rising to 28, a day earlier, ending the indicators’ 48-day stretch in the “extreme fear” zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed index tracks market sentiment using volatility, momentum, volume, and social data. Any reading below 25 signals extreme fear, while higher values reflect an improving risk appetite. Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: alternative.me The index reading points to an improvement in market sentiment this week, marking its first exit from extreme fear in over six weeks. The…

Fed holds rates steady as sticky inflation and geopolitics pressure markets

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The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% as markets turned cautious ahead of the decision. Attention now shifts to Chair Jerome Powell for guidance on how policymakers view the path of inflation and growth through the rest of the year. In a statement issued on March 18, the Fed projected US GDP growth to ease slightly from 2.4% in 2026 to 2.1% in 2028, with the unemployment rate gradually falling from 4.4% to 4.2%. PCE inflation is forecast to decline from…

US Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Crack Down on Prediction Markets War Bets

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Two Democratic lawmakers in the US Congress have introduced legislation in response to “government corruption” over bets on prediction markets platforms. In a Tuesday announcement, Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said they had introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and ​Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act after several Polymarket accounts made “highly unusual bets” that a war between the US and Israel against Iran would begin. Murphy said on March 4 that it was likely that people with “inside information” of US President Donald Trump’s…

GSR moves to build one stop crypto capital markets platform with $57M acquisition

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GSR has acquired Autonomous and Architech in a $57 million deal, according to a company announcement, as the crypto trading firm expands its push to become a full-stack capital markets provider for tokenized organizations. The acquisition integrates Autonomous’s launch and operational support platform with Architech’s advisory capabilities, forming a unified offering that spans token design, fundraising, liquidity, and long-term treasury management. Autonomous will continue operating under its existing brand, while Architech will anchor a new GSR Digital Asset Advisory division alongside GSR’s trading and asset management businesses. The move comes…

Bloomberg Strategist Warns of 2008 Replay for Global Markets

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As the conflict involving Iran drags on and global energy supplies risk prolonged disruption, most financial assets are likely to behave like risk assets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone in a recent interview with Cointelegraph. Despite major price swings across commodities, stock market volatility has remained relatively low, a divergence McGlone considers unsustainable. Historically, such imbalances tend to resolve through increased volatility in equities — often during broader market corrections. That unusual volatility dynamic is also showing up in gold, a market traditionally viewed as a safe haven.…

Prediction Markets Will Scale As Far As Resolution Infrastructure Allows

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Opinion by: David Azubike, lead analyst at Blocksquare Prediction markets are no longer an experimental corner of crypto. Data now shows something durable: a financial category with sustained volume, diversified participation and increasing institutional attention. Prediction markets are emerging as a new “arbitrage arena” for crypto traders. Monthly notional volume in prediction markets scaled to more than $13 billion by late 2025 from less than $100 million in early 2024 as markets diversified across verticals, according to a joint research report from Dune and Keyrock.  Data showing sustained post election…