Bitcoin Bears Cap BTC At $70K Despite Negative Funding

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s futures funding rates briefly turned negative, signaling that bullish traders currently lack the conviction to use leverage.

• Uncertainty regarding the long-term profitability of artificial intelligence has pushed investors toward gold and US government bonds.

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim the $70,000 level on Tuesday following a retraction in the S&P 500 futures. Traders are concerned that investments in the artificial intelligence sector could take longer to mature, which pressured shares of Nvidia (NVDA US), Apple (AAPL US), and Google (GOOGL US) on Friday. Bearishness in Bitcoin futures became apparent, leading traders to fear further downside.

The annualized BTC futures funding rate briefly flipped negative on Monday, indicating a lack of demand for leveraged long positions. Under neutral conditions, this indicator typically ranges between 6% and 12%; consequently, a lack of conviction from bulls has been the norm for the past week. The recent dominance of precious metals has also contributed to the disappointment of Bitcoin investors.

Silver and gold emerged as clear winners over the past two months while the stock market entered a consolidation period. Gains in the tech sector have come to a standstill as some analysts argue that valuations have become excessive, while others claim efficiency gains from AI are finally paying off. Regardless of the outcome, investors sought protection in government bonds.

Yields on the 10-year US Treasury declined to their lowest levels since November 2025, signaling that demand for these bonds has increased. This trend does not necessarily reflect higher confidence in the Federal Reserve’s strategy to avoid a recession without fueling inflation. In fact, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, as reflected in the DXY index.

Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, reportedly stated on Friday that revenues from AI investments are unlikely to pay off in the next couple of years. According to Fortune, he warned that spending massive amounts to build data centers quickly could be “ruinous.” 

Amodei also noted that delivering $10 trillion of compute by mid-2027 is impossible due to capacity constraints. This uncertainty in the tech sector has pushed investors toward more risk-averse behavior.

Bitcoin options market stabilizes as macroeconomic uncertainty lingers

Demand for neutral-to-bearish strategies using BTC options has stagnated over the past week. The panic following the unexpected crash to $60,200 on Feb. 6 has largely subsided, yet traders are still far from flipping bullish.

Related: Bitcoin accumulation wave puts $80K back in play–Analyst

The BTC options put-to-call ratio at Deribit stood at 0.8x on Monday, indicating balanced demand between put (sell) and call (buy) instruments. This data contrasts sharply with the 1.5x ratio seen last Wednesday, a level typically deemed bearish. While it will likely take a couple of weeks for bulls to regain full confidence, Bitcoin derivatives metrics currently show no signs of panic among market participants.

Traders may have opted to act more cautiously, choosing to take profits after Bitcoin flirted with the $70,000 mark. This caution was amplified as both the US and Chinese markets were closed for holidays on Monday. There is no clear indication that Bitcoin is bound for further downside based solely on the negative BTC futures funding rate. However, establishing sustainable bullish momentum will likely depend on a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty.