Day: April 2, 2026

Joe kent claims US wants quick end to Iran conflict, Israel disagrees

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Joe Kent’s comments suggest the US seeks a swift resolution to the Iran conflict. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES from 10% in the last 24 hours. Kent’s remarks indicate internal US disagreement on the war’s duration, hinting at a diplomatic shift. The April 30 ceasefire market rose 2 points to 38% YES, suggesting traders expect changes in late April. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, down from 20% yesterday. The May 31 market stands at 56% YES, indicating a longer…

Trump rules out US ground troops in Iran, ceasefire odds nudge up

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Trump’s announcement that the US will not send ground troops into Iran nudges the ceasefire odds slightly higher. The “US x Iran ceasefire by April 30” market now sits at 38.5% YES, up from 36% yesterday. In Polymarket’s US x Iran ceasefire markets, the April 7 odds remain low at 8.5% YES, down from 10% a day ago, showing skepticism about an immediate resolution. The April 15 market also drops to 18.5% YES. However, Trump’s focus on ending the war without a ground invasion has provided some optimism for a…

Trump to announce Iran ceasefire talks amid troop withdrawal discussions

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President Trump plans to announce progress in Iran’s military campaign, with potential troop withdrawals and a ceasefire if Iran offers concessions. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago. Traders in the April 7 market remain skeptical, with odds dropping. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, down from 20% yesterday. The April 30 market rose to 38% YES from 36%, suggesting traders expect developments by mid-April. The biggest jump is between April 15 and April 30, a…

SpaceX Reportedly Files IPO at Potential $1.75T Valuation

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Elon Musk’s aerospace company SpaceX has reportedly filed confidentially for an initial public offering, moving it closer to what could be the biggest public listing in US history. SpaceX submitted its IPO confidentially to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, according to a report from Bloomberg on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The IPO could be finalized as early as June, the sources said. SpaceX could seek a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion in the IPO, sources told Bloomberg in February. A valuation of that size would make the…